For his third light heavyweight title defense, the champion Pereira, 37, is justifiably favored as the -450 favorite, the second largest on the card.
Let’s just say it now: Both of the title fights at UFC 307 feature challengers who should not be next in line. If meritocracy has to die to have some fun, then so be it, says the UFC. Enter the No. 7-ranked contender and “GLORY Kickboxing Killer” Rountree.
Rountree, 34, is undeniably on the best stretch of his 10-year pro career, riding a five-fight win streak. Of those five, Rountree has finished four of his opponents with strikes, including one-time title challenger Anthony Smith in his most recent win this past December.
I mentioned the fun little “GLORY Killer” nickname for Rountree, stemming from when he bested former kickboxing standouts Dustin Jacoby and Gokhan Saki, the latter of which was a stunning 2018 upset. As a +340 underdog, Rountree hopes to replicate that same epic performance against another former GLORY champion with his vicious kicks and elbows.
That won’t be anything new for Pereira. The champ has seen it all in the striking department, with his largest hurdles coming against his longtime rival, former middleweight king Israel Adesanya. Other than his loss to Adesanya, Pereira has struggled minimally in kickboxing-themed MMA affairs. It would be wise for Rountree to try and exploit the weaker area of Pereira’s game — the champ’s grappling — but he’s already stated in interviews that he won’t go down that route. Whether that’s all just mind games, Pereira has continually improved his takedown defense and overall ground acumen to the point where Rountree won’t be much of a threat there.
But Pereira can be hit, and with power like Rountree’s, that could be trouble. It’s just a matter of finding his shot first, which is the problem. Pereira’s timing and counters are virtually unmatched in the heavier weight classes, and oh, he has one of the greatest equalizers in MMA history with that nuclear left hook, if not the greatest. The man can hurt people anywhere on the feet and he’ll add to his highlight reel here, especially if Rountree doesn’t even mix in a threat of wrestling.
It could be something crazy like Thiago Santos vs. Jimi Manuwa while it lasts, but ultimately, we’ll hear Bruce Buffer announce, “And still.”
Pick: Pereira