2024-10-06 13:25:03
Tropical Depression 14 quickly became Tropical Storm Milton over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and could be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory.
The tropical storm is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday, according to the NHC.
Milton is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 36 hours and could be a major Category 3 hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid-week and brings the risk of life-threatening impacts to portions of the state’s west coast, the NHC said.
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Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday morning with winds possibly at 110 mph, NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said.
Tropical-storm-force winds could impact the west coast of Florida Tuesday and across the peninsula Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Based on the current forecast, “you really have the rest of today, tomorrow and Monday to get prepared,” Rhome warned.
Milton is expected to bring heavy rain and potential flooding to much of Florida late this weekend and through the middle of next week.
According to AccuWeather, “the greatest threat to lives and property appears to be due to torrential rainfall that can lead to dangerous, damaging and disruptive urban flooding in central and South Florida, beginning as early as Sunday and lasting through the middle of next week.”
Rainfall of 4-8 inches is forecast for portions of central and South Florida and totals of 8-12 inches for places like Tampa, Orlando and Polk County, AccuWeather forecasters said.
Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday, the NHC said.
Polk County was among 35 counties placed under a state of emergency by Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday afternoon.
The county was already expecting a ton of rain from this low pressure system in the Gulf that became Milton — even when it was uncertain whether the storm would reach tropical storm status. There’s a 50% to 60% chance of rain Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before the main event — Milton — on Wednesday.
Accuweather forecasters say the I-4 corridor could get as much as 8 to 12 inches. And the National Weather Service in Tampa issued a flood watch for its entire area, including Polk County, starting 11 a.m. Sunday through 8 a.m. Thursday.
It’s early for tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings, with impact expected Wednesday. Some warnings could emerge for coastal areas on Sunday, the NWS said. But early Saturday, before Milton formed, the NWS was predicting a very windy and rainy Wednesday for Polk County, with gusts near hurricane strength.
On Saturday evening, the Peace River in Bartow was at 6.89 feet. The “action” point, where localities are encouraged to take action against possible flooding, is 7.6 feet. Minor flood stage is 8 feet, moderate stage 9.2 feet and major flood stage 10 feet. Water flows to this point in the Peace River from the Peace Creek in the Winter Haven area and Saddle Creek and Lake Hancock in Lakeland.
The Hillsborough River near Zephyrhills, which takes water from the Blackwater and Itchepackesassa creeks in northwest Lakeland and farther north in the Green Swamp, was at 4.56 feet Saturday evening. Action level there is 8 feet, with minor flood stage at 10 feet. Itchepackesassa, in particular, often floods during heavy rain events, regardless of the levels in the Hillsborough.
The Alafia River, which carries water from the southwest area of Lakeland, including Poley Creek, to Tampa Bay, was measured at 10.81 feet, Saturday evening. Its action point is 11 feet and minor flood stage is 13 feet.
Meanwhile, over the open Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk is a powerful Category 3 hurricane. Swells from Kirk are expected to reach the East Coast of the U.S. Saturday night and Sunday and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Storm Leslie gained Category 1 hurricane strength in the tropical east Atlantic late Friday. Leslie is not expected to affect land.
The hurricane center is also tracking a tropical wave off the eastern coast of Africa. The wave has a 30 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
➤ Tropical threat in Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West.
Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph.
A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight.
A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
RAIN: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Fourteen
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Kirk
At 5 p.m., the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 50.0 West.
Kirk is moving toward the north near 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
Impacts: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Leslie
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 36.0 West.
Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph.
A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts.
A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.
Impacts: No impacts to land are expected.
Far eastern tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday.
Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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