Hurricane forecast to hit Florida

Tropical Storm Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday as forecasters expect the storm to quickly strengthen into a major hurricane over the next few days.

Milton is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 36 hours and could be a major Category 3 hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida peninsula mid-week, bringing the risk of life-threatening impacts to portions of the state’s west coast, the National Hurricane Center said. Areas at the greatest risk are communities still reeling from last month’s Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Ian in 2022.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for the following counties: Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter and Volusia.

Hurricane watches could be issued as early as late Sunday for parts of Florida, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday night.

Milton is expected to develop into a “potentially very impactful hurricane” and hit the Florida peninsula Tuesday or Wednesday, Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Saturday afternoon during an online briefing.

Milton is expected to have maximum sustained winds of 115 mph around the time it makes landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida – near St. Petersburg and Tampa. “That’s right on a Category 2-Category 3” hurricane, Rhome said.

Though all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes. Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and loss of life. Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods and tornadoes.

Winds from Milton could get as high as 120 mph to 140 mph at landfall and “that will cause structural damage,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said in a Saturday afternoon briefing.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Kirk is expected to generate swells in the Atlantic Ocean affecting the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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Tropical Storm Milton path tracker

Milton forecast to hit Florida with heavy rain

No evacuations have been ordered, Rhome said, but they may be necessary. Residents in the Florida peninsula should have their hurricane plan in place, the center said, and follow subsequent forecasts and official notices.

“Regardless of where the storm tracks, it’s going to produce a large area of heavy rain and potential flooding,” Rhome said.

Rapid strengthening is expected with Milton becoming a hurricane Sunday evening and developing into a major hurricane as it moves across the central and eastern part of the Gulf, the center said in an update Saturday night. The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch Saturday night for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun.

The west coast of the Florida peninsula can expect life-threatening storm surge and winds – less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene brought devastation to the Southeast. Milton was 860 miles west-southwest of Tampa on Saturday night.

“People in cities that are still reeling from the record storm surge produced by Hurricane Helene will once again face a significant risk for storm surge flooding and coastal inundation, flooding rainfall, damaging wind gusts and lengthy power outages,” said Brandon Buckingham, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, in an update Saturday. “The potential for rapid intensification is certainly a risk that AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring very closely.”

Milton may also bring dangerous storm surge, spin-up tornadoes and cause power outages, according to AccuWeather, which warned of high risks to lives and property in Tampa, Fort Myers and other cities along the Gulf coast and parts of central Florida.

On Friday, forecasters were especially worried about torrential rainfall from the system.

As the storm makes landfall and tracks northeast, rainfall of 8-12 inches is expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 30 inches.

As the storm moves northward, central and southern Florida will likely face “tornado risk,” while southern Georgia and South Carolina may get winds of 40 mph to 60 mph, Smerbeck said. “So this could hamper some recover efforts for people getting back on track” after Helene, he said.

Tropical Storm Milton spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Hurricane Kirk swells to hit US East Coast

Kirk was located far out in the Atlantic, but its swells are expected to spread westward to the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday, the hurricane center said Saturday. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.

Hurricane Kirk path tracker

Hurricane Kirk spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

If path tracker and spaghetti models are not displaying on your screen, you can view them here.

Hurricane Leslie track

Leslie is located in the tropical east Atlantic and is not expected to impact land, the center said Saturday.

Hurricane Leslie spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

If path tracker and spaghetti model are not displaying on your screen, you can view them here.

(This story has been updated to add new information and to correct a misspelling/typo.)

Contributing: William Hatfield, Ana Goni-Lessan, Kim Luciani and Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY Network. Doyle Rice, USA TODAY.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

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