Would an acquisition of 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk be feasible for the Bills?

It’s always good to have dreams and aspirations, but an important part of maturing is realizing that some goals are far more feasible—and thus, achievable—than others.

The Brandon Aiyuk trade saga is making a significant number of Western New Yorkers grow up quickly.

The very public spat between the reigning second-team All-Pro and the San Francisco 49ers has reached HBO miniseries levels of drama and length; the wideout, who is currently set to make just north of $14 million in the 2024 campaign on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal, has been searching for a new mega-contract throughout the entire offseason, and the reigning NFC Champions, to this point, have not budged. He requested a trade from the 49ers in mid-July before ‘holding in’ at the team’s training camp (he reported but is not participating); despite reports from anonymous Twitter accounts and videos of the pass-catcher shaking hands in Santa Clara, a resolution has not yet been reached.

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San Francisco has long been outspoken in its unwillingness to trade Aiyuk, but this, too, has shifted in recent days, with ESPN’s Mike Reiss reporting on August 6 that the team is now willing to listen to offers on the former first-round draft pick. He mentioned the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots as possible landing spots, but it’s a different northeastern AFC club that the Buffalo faithful has posited as a destination.

The Buffalo Bills, on paper, are a match made in heaven for the 26-year-old weapon. An abundance of available targets? The Bills have 241 unaccounted for following the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. A bright offensive coordinator who can make the most of Aiyuk’s unique skillset? Joe Brady checks that box. An otherworldly signal-caller who can consistently get the receiver the ball? Josh Allen is pretty dang good, regardless of what the NFL Top 100 Players vote would suggest.

Throw in the fact that Buffalo spent the offseason better positioning itself for long-term financial flexibility and the idea that it’s working with an additional premium selection in next year’s draft after the Diggs trade, and this seems feasible, right? The concept of Aiyuk donning the charging buffalo helmet in Orchard Park next year—and for the foreseeable future—doesn’t seem too preposterous at an initial glance.

While wonderful from a 30,000-foot view, it’s upon further inspection that the hypothetical loses a bit of steam for reasons both financial and philosophical. Starting with the payroll, Buffalo cannot afford to roster Aiyuk this season. The team, according to OverTheCap, currently has just north of $10 million in available salary cap space; the wideout has a 2024 cap number of $14.1 million. Cover 1 salary cap expert Greg Tompsett noted on Twitter that the Bills would need to restructure six of its current contracts to simply stomach the one year remaining on Aiyuk’s current deal, and doing so would financially encumber the team throughout the regular season.

https://twitter.com/GregTompsett/status/1820627952956035166?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This isn’t even taking into account the idea that Buffalo would need to promptly extend Aiyuk and make him one of the league’s highest-paid pass-catchers; Reiss noted in his report that the former Arizona State Sun Devil has “balked” at several contract offers in the $28 million average annual value range, so one could safely assume that an ultimate extension would see him earn north of that mark each season. The Bills, according to OverTheCap, are currently set to be $3 million… over the cap next season; general manager Brandon Beane will ultimately make moves to create breathing room, but this gives you an idea that the team’s salary cap woes, while perhaps improved compared to a few months ago, are not entirely resolved.

Acquiring Aiyuk is not a financial impossibility, but it would require the team to kick several cans down the road, which simply isn’t something that it’s positioned to do at this time.

Bringing the two-time 1,000-yard wide receiver to One Bills Drive would also signal a significant departure from the personnel strategy Buffalo has operated with throughout the 2024 offseason. The team did not pursue a bonafide alpha wideout in the wake of Diggs’ departure, instead opting to construct its receiving corps of overlooked, versatile weapons whom Allen can disperse the ball amongst evenly. The offensive revamp seems intentional; rather than funneling the offense through a receiver who demands 160 targets per year, the Bills can now take an egalitarian approach to aerial production, one that sees a bevy of weapons getting involved and playing in significant roles.

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Joe Brady summarized this offensive philosophy in five simple words: “Everyone is going to eat.” The strategy is showing early returns at training camp, as third-year contributor Khalil Shakir, free agent signee Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid have all consistently flashed; acquiring Aiyuk would prevent Buffalo from ever implementing the schematic strategy that it centered its entire offseason approach around.

And while it’s true that Aiyuk would not demand the target share previously allotted to Diggs, he has recorded over 70 receptions and 100 targets in each of the past two seasons; he would objectively become the No. 1 wide receiver in a receiving corps that, by design, does not have a primary option. This isn’t even to mention the idea that Buffalo has spent the offseason ‘elongating its championship window’ and injecting youth into the roster; parting ways with premium draft assets in exchange for Aiyuk would prevent the Bills from adding further youth to their roster in future offseasons.

Aiyuk would objectively raise both the floor and ceilings of Buffalo’s offense in both the short and long terms, and it would certainly be fun to watch a player as versatile and dynamic as the All-Pro catch passes from Allen throughout their primes. That said, it’s simply not a move that, while possible, the Bills are positioned to make at this juncture. The team may be able to position itself as a significant player in next year’s free agency period, but given the immediate financial and strategic reshuffling an Aiyuk acquisition would require, it looks as though Buffalo may sit this sweepstakes out. 

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