Political Science Experts Explain ‘What to Expect for the 2024 Election’

According to a panel of political science experts, 18- to 34-year-olds are the largest age group of voters in California and could dominate the election — if they turn out. 

Ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, Cal State Fullerton’s Office of Alumni Engagement and Division of Politics, Administration and Justice are encouraging voters to turn in their ballots or show up at the polls for Election Day. In California, where same-day registration is available, eligible voters have the opportunity to register and vote until 7:59 p.m. on Nov. 5.

During the Nov. 1 “What to Expect for the 2024 Election” panel discussion at the Golleher Alumni House, political science faculty members from Cal State Fullerton and Fullerton College discussed what to look for on Election Night and in the days to come. The event was part of the Office of Alumni Engagement’s Go Vote voter education series.

After the polls close, what should those following the election be looking for?

Matt Jarvis, CSUF associate professor of political science: The first poll closing is Kentucky at 6:30 p.m. Eastern time, which is 3:30 p.m. on the West Coast. And then you get nothing for a while. The first states to look at are Virginia, Florida and Ohio. If the Republican doesn’t win the 2nd District in Virginia, it’s a bad night for the Republicans. If the Democrat doesn’t win the 7th District, it’s going to be a bad night for the Democrats. 

Donald Trump is expected to win Florida, but if it’s close or they don’t call Florida relatively early, then that will be a sign that Kamala Harris is in for a good night. You’re also looking at the Senate race and Districts 13 and 27, all of which are expected to be Republican victories. If they don’t get called early, that’s a signal that the Republicans aren’t doing well. Trump is expected to win Ohio, but Districts 1, 9 and 13 are all expected to be Democratic leaders. If any of those are taking a long time to be called, you’re probably looking at a long night for the Democrats.

Which swing state will give the first indication of the presidential outcome?

Rob Robinson, CSUF associate professor of political science: Michigan. Both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have laws set up to delay counting, and that was done during 2020 to create the portrayal of an early lead for the Republicans. Those states did not change those rules from that election. But Michigan doesn’t have that kind of slow counting. Michigan is probably Harris’ most favorable state in the ‘blue wall,’ so if she’s behind or losing there, I think that’s an indicator for the rest of that region.

Who will turn out this election?

Shelly Arsneault, CSUF professor of public administration and political science: What I’m looking for in Florida is the abortion proposition and how many women that brings out. Young women are mobilized by reproductive rights and bodily autonomy questions, and they are now the youngest voters being introduced via TikTok to the Trump Access Hollywood tape. They are horrified and sharing it.

What impact do young voters, ages 18 to 34, have in this election?

Jodi Balma, Fullerton College professor of political science: 18- to 34-year-olds in California and in Orange County are the largest age cohort that we have, so they could dominate elections. But they don’t turn out. In the 2022 and 2024 primary elections, 74% of all ballots cast in Orange County and California were cast by those ages 50 and older. The decisions being made might not be what young people want. 

Arsneault: What keeps young people, and Californians in general, from voting is the Electoral College and this idea that we don’t matter. For young people, everything is about the presidential election and they don’t always understand how important the congressional races are and that this is actually where we can make the difference and where our voting would matter a lot.

Jarvis: The implementation of universal mail-in ballots and automatic voter registration during COVID really changed the election game. We really can’t make very good projections on the election results because we’ve only had one race in 2020 with these voting methods. I imagine we are not going to have a call on Election Night, even if they could theoretically do it. I think they’re going to be real gun-shy and play it safe because of all these changes.

What can people expect to see in the days, weeks and months following the election?

Jarvis: I expect increased low levels of political violence. There will be stories on Election Day, some fake and some real, of people who were subject to violence. If Trump wins, or it looks like Trump is winning through the early parts of November, you are likely to see large-scale protests in most major cities. I think those will continue through Inauguration Day. If Harris wins, violence is likely to be higher.

Scott Spitzer, CSUF professor of political science: As a political scientist, I’m very concerned about the health of our democracy. I feel like the election process itself is under a cloud of fear that is gripping the entire country — and yet, we’re having an election. I think there’s still a chance for those of you who are able to vote, and haven’t yet exercised that vote, to make a difference. So please, vote.