Bill Oram: Oregon football’s moment of truth has arrived

EUGENE — Oregon’s moment of truth has arrived.

The Ducks looked every bit the part of a national contender on Friday night in a 31-10 win against Michigan State.

But the Spartans are in the early days of an institutional overhaul. Jonathan Smith has his work cut out for him in East Lansing. So the Ducks’ smothering victory was less a statement than it was the launching pad for a long-simmering question.

“Finally,” Dan Lanning told reporters Friday night, “you guys can talk about it. We’re finally there.”

Here we go …

Are the Ducks ready for Ohio State?

Will it be the Ducks?

Or the Bucks?

On Friday, Traeshon Holden caught a pass while laying on his back. Jordan James shoved Spartan defenders out of his way to tally 166 yards. There is an Aidan Chiles-shaped indent at midfield after Jordan Burch repeatedly threw him onto the turf.

OK, one of those is slightly embellished.

But only slightly.

The student section emptied out by the start of the fourth quarter of Oregon’s Big Ten home opener. The Ducks nearly doubled Michigan State’s offensive output, tallying 477 yards to the Spartans’ 250. Fans were streaming out before Michigan State ever managed to score midway through the final period.

The Ducks supporters were certainly ready to turn the page.

And why wouldn’t they be?

Next weekend presents one of the juiciest matchups in school history. The Ducks are No. 6 in the country, and could be higher by next week. The Buckeyes, assuming a win over Iowa on Saturday, will be ranked no worse than No. 3.

The matchup is not just a test of the 2024 Ducks and their aspirations of winning a national championship, but also a test of what Lanning has built in his three years at Oregon. A test of his decision to put down roots in Eugene rather than use it as a stepping stone as his predecessors did.

A loss to the Buckeyes wouldn’t necessarily shatter all of that. There could still be the matter of a rematch in the Big Ten championship game. And the Ducks have a long life ahead of them in the Big Ten.

But a win …

That would be the ultimate validation of Oregon’s trajectory. Of the hype that accompanied the Ducks’ move to the Big Ten.

So while it is easy to overstate the importance of a single game, particularly in the age of a 12-team playoff, when a team can overcome virtually any one stumble to still have a path to a national title, there is a weight to this matchup.

Ohio State is allowing just 196.5 yards per game. Only Tennessee has been more suffocating. The Buckeyes’ 48.5 points per game ranks fourth in the nation.

The Ducks are coming off of a pair of dominant defensive performances. In the last two weeks, Oregon has allowed only one offensive touchdown, and that didn’t come until the Ducks had the game well in hand on Friday.

It was a common refrain in the press box on Friday that the Ducks have truly arrived in the Big Ten: winning games by running the ball and playing suffocating defense.

When Michigan State drove to the Ducks’ 2-yard line on its opening drive, defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell stood up Chiles, the talented but raw quarterback who followed Smith to East Lansing, and forced a fumble that was recovered by Burch.

That fumble recovery went along with 2 1/2 sacks for Burch, who was as dominant defensively as any Oregon player has been in Lanning’s tenure. The Spartans’ offensive line had no answers for Burch.

“He’s been playing with great violence,” Lanning said by way of praise.

When Dillon Gabriel faltered, throwing a pair of mind-boggling interceptions inside the 10-yard line in the first half — his second and third of the year — the Ducks defense forced two punts on a total of nine plays.

When Gabriel was down, the defense picked him up.

That was good enough against the Spartans. It will take more against the Buckeyes.

The shine came off this Ducks team in the first two weeks of the season. Squeaking past Idaho and Boise State — good though the Broncos may be — doesn’t instill much confidence.

But if you did not know that those games had played out as they did, and were only aware that in the next three weeks the Ducks had held Oregon State, UCLA and Michigan State to scoring totals of 14, 13 and 10, you’d believe that they were ready for the biggest test of their season.

Or at least as ready as they could be.

— Bill Oram is sports columnist at The Oregonian/OregonLive.