2024-09-05 11:50:02
The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites over the Ravens in the rematch of the AFC Championship Game, which is where the line currently sits, with the total at 46.5.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Chiefs (-3)
Moneyline: Chiefs (-150), Ravens (+130)
Over/under: 46.5
First-half spread: Chiefs -2.5 (+115), Ravens +2.5 (-145)
Chiefs total points: over 24.5 (Even), under 24.5 (-130)
Ravens total points: over 21.5 (-115), under 21.5 (-115)
The props
Passing yards
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Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: over 269.5 (-115), under 269.5 (-115)
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Lamar Jackson total passing yards: over 221.5 (-115), under 221.5 (-115)
Passing touchdowns
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Mahomes total passing touchdowns: over 1.5 (-180), under 1.5 (+145)
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Jackson total passing touchdowns: over 1.5 (+135), under 1.5 (-170)
Rushing yards
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Isiah Pacheco total rushing yards: over 58.5 (-115), under 58.5 (-115)
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Derrick Henry total rushing yards: over 63.5 (-115), under 63.5 (-115)
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Jackson total rushing yards: over 47.5 (-110), under 47.5 (-120)
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Mahomes total rushing yards: over 20.5 (-110), under 20.5 (-120)
Receiving yards
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Travis Kelce total receiving yards: over 57.5 (-120), under 57.5 (-110)
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Zay Flowers total receiving yards: over 52.5 (-115), under 52.5 (-115)
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Mark Andrews total receiving yards: over 48.5 (-115), under 48.5 (-115)
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Rashod Bateman total receiving yards: over 28.5 (-120), under 28.5 (-110)
Pick of the game: under 46.5
While this matchup features two of the league’s most explosive offenses, I’m eyeing the under 46.5 for Thursday night, primarily because of the formidable defenses that will be on display. Both defensive units are elite, with the Ravens and Chiefs finishing as the top two scoring defenses last season.
The Ravens led the NFL in sacks and takeaways, while Baltimore’s secondary has one of the league’s best safeties in Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton, alongside cornerback Marlon Humphrey, can disguise coverages effectively, potentially forcing Mahomes to hold the ball longer and increasing the chances of sacks or hurried throws.
The Chiefs’ defensive strength is the pass rush, led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, who combined for an impressive 21 sacks last season. Baltimore’s offensive line could be a potential weakness in 2024, with questions around the inexperience of new players. The Ravens return only two starters, which could impact pass protection.
Kansas City’s receivers also remain a question mark. While the Chiefs added speedster Xavier Worthy through the draft, he’s still an unproven rookie. Meanwhile, Jackson will be operating behind younger talent and with a new running back in Derrick Henry. Henry should help with ball control, but it may take some time for the offense to jell completely.
The Ravens’ ability to limit big plays and force short passes, coupled with the Chiefs’ pass rush potentially exploiting Baltimore’s inexperienced offensive line, could keep the scoring in check. These factors, along with both teams undergoing offensive adjustments, point toward the total staying under 46.5 for this season opener. — Pamela Maldonado
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info
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Jackson is 12-1-1 ATS in his career as a regular-season underdog, the best record of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (minimum five starts). He is 10-4 outright, the best record of any quarterback with at least six starts as an underdog.
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Jackson is 25-11-2 ATS on the road in his career in the regular season.
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The Ravens are 12-4 ATS in Week 1 under John Harbaugh (7-1 ATS past eight seasons), the second-best mark of any head coach in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 games (Tom Flores, 10-2).
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Reigning Super Bowl champions are 0-3 ATS in Week 1 in the past three seasons with back-to-back outright losses. They were 13-4-3 ATS over the previous 20 seasons.
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The Ravens finished 13-4 last season. The last 13-win team to be at least a 3-point underdog in Week 1 the following season was the 2013 Falcons (+3.5 at Saints, and lost by 6).
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The Ravens were 11-6 ATS last season, covering games by an average of 8.2 points per game. It was the second-highest average cover margin over the past decade, only behind the 2019 Ravens (10.3 PPG).
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Unders were 11-6 in Chiefs games last season (13-8 including playoffs).
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Prime-time unders are 70-42-1 over the past two seasons (35-23 last season).
