Portugal and France started the 2024 European Championship as two of the favourites to win the trophy. Though both have sailed into the quarterfinals, neither of them has dominated matches – all but one – in the tournament.
At the Volksparkstadion Hamburg, the two will play a repeat fixture of the 2016 Euro final, wherein the past – Cristiano Ronaldo – and present – Kylian Mbappe – of Real Madrid will have a go for a final-four spot.
“The Euros are always a tight race, it’s always a very difficult competition for us. Now you’ve only got huge teams left competing, and you need to be on top of every little detail, be it upfront or defending,” Mbappe told reporters before the game.
“During our training sessions, there were improvements, we were working on our finishing and our intensity. We worked as best we could with the time that we had. But we’re ready and raring to go for tomorrow.”
Need to mitigate midfield issues for France
Didier Deschamps’ men have played a 4-3-3 formation throughout the tournament, with an improvisation in the round of 16, where it changed to a narrower 4-3-1-2 shape, with Antoine Griezmann playing the No. 10 role.
France’s usual trajectory of attack has been either through the middle – N’golo Kante setting up Ousmane Dembele on his right to drift wide and then cut into the box – or along the left flank, where Theo Hernandez overlaps to cross for Mbappe or Marcus Thuram.
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Though that has worked in phases, France’s problem has been in contingencies. What happens when Dembele and Theo are frozen and Mbappe is marked tightly?
Mbappe, his country’s third-highest goalscorer at 25, has failed to find a single open-play goal at Euro 2024.
It was here that Paul Pogba – who is currently banned due to doping – used to provide the panacea, with his progressive passing, stretching the opposition’s defensive line.
With Aurelien Tchouameni tracking back to cover chances of counterattack, Adrian Rabiot has been employed in a similar role as Pogba. But the 29-year-old has failed to match a prime Pogba, who was instrumental in France winning the 2018 World Cup.
Pogba at 2018 WC – Rabiot at 2024 Euros
Passes into final third – 8.5 – 7.65
Passes into penalty area – 2.17 – 0.59
Progressive passes – 8 – 7.06
Shot-creating actions – 4.01 – 3.77
Goal+Assists – 2 – 0
All stats per 90 minutes
However, France’s silver lining in the midfield has been Kante, who has kept the engine room hot, with constant forays into the final third, and leading counterattacks.
Unsurprisingly, Kante, who has found a way despite being marked, as he has so far in the tournament, has won the Player of the Match Award in half of France’s games so far.
France will thus need another cover for Kante to find an opening when all attacking options of the team are marked well.
Portugal: Time to make the best of chances
Portugal has, over the last decade, remained over-reliant on Ronaldo for goals. But at 39, he is well past his prime.
And when his decision to set up Bruno Fernades instead of scoring himself against Turkey, an instance from where he would have scored himself five years ago, only showed his low confidence. His penalty, saved against Slovenia, did not help the case.
In such a case, Portugal has transcended into a more aggressive open play where Fernandes has threaded through balls from the midfield while Bernardo Silva and Raphael Leao have parried the ball along the flanks.
Ronaldo’s off-the-ball movement has continued to be his strength but his ability to convert the chances has taken a major hit.
Ronaldo stats – 2016 vs 2024
Total shots – 6.52 – 4.63
Total shots on target: 1.59 – 1.95
Goals: 0.43 – 0
All stats per 90 minutes
Coach Roberto Martinez will have to make bold choices before the knockout fixture – allowing youngsters to take charge with Francisco Conceição and António Silva impressing in National team colours.
Portugal has ticked all the right boxes as compared to France in the tournament, with more goals, higher possession and more balls recovered. But it has failed to convert most of its chances, with a shot conversion of hardly 30 per cent.
Secondly, Martinez has experimented with formations mid-tournament, tweaking a four-man backline – in a 4-3-3 formation – to a 3-5-2 shape in half of the matches, which often leaves teams vulnerable.
Pogba at 2018 WC – Rabiot at 2024 Euros
Total Goals – 5 – 3
Balls recovered – 176 – 159
Tackles won – 22 – 17
Possession – 65.25% – 53.75%
Passing accuracy – 89.5% – 90.5%
All stats per 90 minutes
It scrambled to a 2-1 win in its opening game, kept clean sheets while scoring five goals in the next two matches and pipped Slovenia on penalties in the round of 16.
Portugal had got the better of France in an even bigger match, in the final eight years ago and Martinez will expect his boys to walk on the same path to keep its European dreams alive.