Here are 12 key takeaways from the results so far:
This time NDA sarkar
As per data on the Election Commission website, the BJP has won 240 seats, which is 30 seats short of majority and a whopping 63 seats less than its tally in the 2019 polls.The final figure means the BJP will be relying heavily on its NDA partners to form the government.
Lok Sabha Elections
Assembly Elections
Far from ‘400 paar’, it seems the BJP-led NDA will have to contend with a shaky majority based entirely on alliance partners sticking together.
BJP’s vote share dips; Congress sees big gain in seats
With the BJP winning 240 seats, much less than the 303 seats it won in 2019, its vote share has seen a slight dip.
In 2019, the BJP had secured around 37.36% of the total votes, this time data show that the saffron party has cornered a vote share of 36.56% — a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Though the dip is slight, the affect on the BJPs seat share has been massive.
The Congress meanwhile cornered 21.19% of the vote share — an improvement of nearly 1.7 percentage points compared to the 19.49% it registered in the 2019 polls. Though a marginal increase, it has translated into the Congress nearly doubling its tally compared to 52 seats in the 2019 polls.
Return of regional parties
Regional parties across 5 states have made major gains in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In Bihar, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) has won 12 seats while the BJP has also won 12. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has won 5 seats while the Rashtriya Janata Dal has won 4. In 2019, the BJP had won 17 seats on its own, JD(U) 16.
In Jharkhand, the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has won 3 seats. On January 31, Hemant Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate. He handed over his resignation letter to the Governor of Jharkhand, who appointed Champai Soren as his designated replacement.
The BJP has won 8 seats. In 2019, it had won 12 of 14 seats.
The power of the region parties was particularly pronounced in Maharashtra where the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-led NCPSP made major gains.
In 2019, the BJP had won 23 of 48 seats while its ally Shiv Sena had won 18. This time around, however, the BJP has won just 9 seats while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP has secured 1 seat and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has won 7 seats.
Meanwhile, Shiv Sena UBT has won 9 seats and Sharad Pawar’s NCP 8. The Congress meanwhile is leading the charge with 13 seats in the bag.
In the most shocking setback for the BJP, the party has won just 33 of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. A far cry from the 62 seats it won in the 2019 polls. The Samajwadi Party on the other hand has made major gains and has won 37 seats, it won only 5 seats in the last general elections.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress has bettered its 2019 tally. It has won 29 seats; the TMC had won 22 seats in 2019. Meanwhile, the BJP, which had won 18 seats in 2019, has secured 12 seats this time.
Major BJP setback in Hindi heartland
In 2019, the BJP had won 176 of the 225 seats in the 10 states the Hindi belt is composed of: Uttar Pradesh (62 seats won out of 80), Uttarakhand (5/5), Bihar (17/40), Jharkhand (11/14), Chhattisgarh (9/11), Madhya Pradesh (28/29), Delhi (7/7), Haryana (10/10), Himachal Pradesh (3/4) and Rajasthan (24/25).
This time around, the BJP has won just 126 of the 225 seats. The saffron party suffered the biggest setbacks in Uttar Pradesh (32 seats won out of 80 seats), Haryana (5/10) and Rajasthan (14/25).
The saffron party has also lost ground in Bihar (12/40) and Jharkhand (8/14).
In Uttarakhand (5/5), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Madhya Pradesh (29/29), Delhi (7/7) and Himachal Pradesh (4/4), the BJP has either kept its dominance or even bettered its 2019 performance.
Muslim-dominated areas ditch BJP
Muslim voters seem to have veered away from the BJP, as per data released by the Election Commission. This, however, did not translate into an advantage for the Congress.
In 2019, out of the 103 Muslim-dominated seats, the BJP had won 45, Congress 11 and others 47.
This time around, however, the BJP won 35 seats, Congress 12 and others 55.
No Congress-mukt Bharat
The BJP’s target of ridding India of the Congress now seems even farther out of reach. In 2019, the Congress was reduced to just 52 seats, however, it has made major gains this time securing 99 seats.
Buoyed by seat-sharing arrangements with its INDIA bloc members, the Congress has won big in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Telangana.
In Telangana, the Congress won 8 of 17 seats. In 2019, it had won just 3 seats in the state.
In Maharashtra, the Congress won 13 seats. In 2019, it had won just 1 seat.
In Rajasthan, the Congress had failed to open its Lok Sabha account in 2019. This time around, it has won 8 seats.
In Haryana too, the Congress had won 0 seats in the last elections, but now has won 5 seats and is neck and neck with the BJP.
Rahul resurgence, impact of Bharat Jodo Yatra
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s south-north Bharat Jodo Yatra, and subsequent east-west Nyay Yatra seems to have had a major positive impact for the party.
States he visited during the yatras have seen major shift towards the Congress.
During a presser on Tuesday, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge highlighted how Rahul’s yatras convinced lakhs of voters to introspect and ditch the BJP and “politics of hatred”.
Rahul, who is contesting from Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, won both seats with large margins.
Rahul cornered 59.69% of votes and won against Communist Party of India’s Annie Raja with a vote margin of 3.6 lakh. BJP came a distant third, garnering 13% of the votes.
In Rae Bareli, Rahul secured an even more decisive win and cornered 66.17% of the votes — nearly 10 percentage points more than what his mother Sonia Gandhi commanded when she won the seat in 2019. Rahul defeated BJP’s Pratap Singh by a vote margin of 3.9 lakh.
No visual impact of Ram temple
The pran pratishtha of Ram temple in Ayodhya was seen by experts as a clincher for the BJP in UP and beyond. The strategy, however, seems to have not at all worked for the saffron party.
In Faizabad — the Lok Sabha seat under which Ayodhya comes — Samajwadi Party’s Awadhesh Prasad beat BJP candidate Lallu Singh by a margin of over 54,000 votes.
BSP loses ground gained in 2019, vote share plummets
As per the election results, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has failed to open its account in Uttar Pradesh. In 2019, the BSP had won 10 seats, up from 0 in 2014.
This time around, the BSP has cornered just 9.39% of the votes, down nearly 10 percentage points compared to 19.43% of votes it commanded in the 2019 polls.
Even when it had won no seats in 2014, the BSP had still cornered 19.77% of the votes.
BJP makes gains in Odisha; major setback for BJD
Despite the major setbacks in the Hindi heartland states, the BJP made major strides in Odisha where it won 20 of the 21 seats.
The Congress won 1 seat while Naveen Patnaik’s BJD failed to open its account.
In 2019, the BJD had won 12 seats and the BJP 8.
The BJD’s vote share this time around was 37.53%, nearly 5.3 percentage points less than what it had secured in 2019. The BJP’s vote share meanwhile has gone up from 38.4% in 2019 to 45.34% in 2024.
Development vs freebies
Can freebies win you elections? Or to put it more succinctly, can freebies alone win elections? It seems not.
Telangana under KCR was a showcase state of freebies model. It helped him win 2 consecutive elections. But the freebie-led model reached its expiry in the third assembly elections. All the freebies could not help KCR win Telangana for the third time.
Next, YSRCP under Jagan Mohan had depended a lot on its freebies to win the Andhra assembly elections again. But Chandrababu Naidu, with his promise of more, has managed to win over voters and the state.
There is no denying that freebies play their part in winning elections. But the thing with freebies is that someone can always promise more. But it is increasingly becoming obvious: Freebies may be necessary but not sufficient to win elections.
Upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana to be nail-biters
The major twist in the Lok Sabha results now point to heated battles in upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana.
Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar-led NCPSP along with the Congress now seem to be in a very strong position going into the assembly elections in the state, which are likely to take place sometime in October this year.
The arrest of Jharkhand former CM Hemant Soren seems to have positively impacted the party, possibly due to sympathy vote as the JMM has repeatedly said the BJP is leading a political witch-hunt against the party. Along with a resurgent Congress, the assembly polls in Jharkhand — sometime in November or December this year — is likely to be a tough contest for the BJP.
In Haryana, the BJP government is already facing the ire of disgruntled farmers; and the JJP, which has 10 assembly seats, has pulled away from the alliance. With the Congress now in a stronger position, the polls — to be held sometime in October this year — will see a tough contest with the BJP fighting an uphill battle.
