Why The Main X-Factor For Victory Might Be On The Sidelines

The 1-7 Carolina Panthers host the 2-6 New Orleans Saints this afternoon in an underwhelming matchup between two underwhelming teams. New Orleans owns a 32-28 all-time series lead between these teams and has won 12 of the last 16 meetings, including a 47-10 thrashing on opening weekend. That also includes a 15-14 record in Carolina, where the Saints have won five of their last seven trips.

With recent offensive struggles, a quick glance might conclude that the Saints would need to rely on their defense to break their six-game losing streak. Against a Carolina offense that ranks 29th or worse in points scored, total yards, passing production, and third down percentage that makes sense. It might also be a dangerous assumption.

New Orleans comes into Week 9 with a pathetic defense. The Saints are 32nd in total yards allowed, 28th against both the pass and run, last in average per rush, and have among the fewest sacks in the league. Perhaps most inexcusable was that the defense was comparatively healthy until the last few weeks. Now, the Saints come into this game without three of their top four cornerbacks.

Yes, the Panthers have an awful offense. This is also a Saints defense that’s allowed a 100-yard receiving game to the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, nearly 200 scrimmage yards to Sean Tucker, almost 600 yards of offense against Tampa Bay, 225 on the ground to Denver, and were scorched by a Kansas City team without their top two wideouts and running backs.

Believe it or not, New Orleans might have to beat Carolina with their offense. It’s a unit that was beginning to get healthy last week with the return of Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, and two offensive linemen. This week, quarterback Derek Carr is also back after a three-game injury absence. However, the Saints then lost running backs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams along with WR Bub Means in last week’s loss.

Still, with their quarterback back, we may see a more open New Orleans offense. It could come down to play-calling and game plan design. That would mean that the New Orleans offensive coaches could be just as important to a potential win as the players on the field.

Saints fans were ready to elect first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak for president after his unit exploded for 91 points and 811 yards in the first two games. In the six weeks since, the offense has averaged only 13.2 points and 291 yards per game.

Kubiak’s hands were tied to a point. In addition to Carr, the Saints have also had to make do without an outstanding versatile weapon, three offensive line starters and two primary backups, no running back depth, and both starting wideouts for a week. However, Kubiak’s game plans and play-calling have also come into some question.

This was especially evident last week against the Chargers. New Orleans made the right decision in giving rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler a third straight start. It was also extremely evident that the Saints had absolutely no confidence or faith in Rattler or his supporting cast. With that the case, one must wonder why they didn’t start Jake Haener or a more proven Taysom Hill behind center.

Having Carr back in the lineup should be a tremendous help. Kubiak will likely have more confidence to call some of the plays that may have been buried in the playbook with the inexperienced Rattler in the lineup.

Additionally, Carr’s experience will also be beneficial for audibles and hot reads against the blitz or complex coverages.

The Saints will still be without one of their best receivers in Rashid Shaheed and best blocker in C Erik McCoy. Even with guards Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick back, the offensive line had an abysmal performance against the Chargers. This needs to change drastically if the Saints are to get anything accomplished offensively.

Aside from Olave, no other wideout on the roster has made plays for their quarterback. Backfield depth is also a big problem. Kamara has been banged up, but Miller and Williams are unavailable to spell him. As a result, we’ll likely see the majority of Hill’s snaps to come out of the backfield.

Establishing Kamara will be the first order of business. He’s not only the best player on the field, but more importantly, Kubiak’s offense is predicated on running the ball and balance. A good running game not only slows the opposing pass rush, but also sets up play-action and potential big plays.

New Orleans also needs more from their tight ends. Juwan Johnson has put up better numbers in recent weeks, catching 21 passes for 168 yards in the last five games. He’ll need to be a consistently productive for Carr, which will open up opportunities for other players in the offense.

It would be extremely nice if a wideout other than Olave made a play. We’ll likely see newly signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the first time in a Saints uniform. Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson, and Equanimeous St. Brown have combined for only 23 catches and 187 yards. It’s hard for any quarterback to be successful when the receivers simply aren’t getting open.

Good coaches maximize the best talents of their players. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Taysom Hill are all going to be huge parts of the game plan this afternoon. Kubiak’s challenge will be to find different ways to make all three effective against a Panthers defense that will certainly focus on the three playmakers.

Motion, play-action, using imaginative formations, and moving their best players around the field. Those are things we saw New Orleans have great success with early on, but little of in recent weeks. Also, designing plays for the other complementary pieces could throw the Panthers off and even open up space for the expected weapons.

Klint Kubiak has not played with anywhere near a full deck in nearly two months. Today, he has his quarterback back, bonafide threats in Kamara, Olave, and Hill, and four of his five opening day offensive line starters. It’s still not an ideal situation. Nevertheless, the pressure is on Kubiak and Carr for an effective offensive performance.

With the way the New Orleans defense has played most of the year and now today with a shorthanded secondary, counting on that unit is a huge gamble. It may come down to Kubiak, Carr, Kamara, and the still shorthanded offense to end the longest losing streak the Saints have had in 20 years.