Yankees vs. Rangers best bet, prediction: MLB odds, picks

The Rangers entered this series against the Yankees as winners in five of their last six games.

However, they faced some pretty mediocre competition, with those victories coming against the Athletics and White Sox, two clubs with a combined .329 winning percentage.

Texas will now step up in class against a Yankees team with the best American League record at 80-58 after grabbing Monday’s series opener, 8-4.

The Yankees still have plenty to play for down the stretch, while the Rangers simply play out the string.

In Tuesday’s matchup, which features two southpaws, New York is the side that offers value as a -130 road favorite at FanDuel.

Yankees analysis

Carlos Rodón will get the start for the Yankees, and he’s showing much more quality now that he’s finally healthy.

Rodón managed just 14 appearances in his first year in New York, going 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA. This season, he’s improved to 14-9 while bringing his ERA down to 4.31. 

His numbers would be even better if he could do a better job keeping the ball inside the park.

In 2024, Rodón is allowing 1.54 home runs per nine innings compared to a 0.88 mark in 2021 and 0.61 in 2022, when he had his best seasons. 

Interestingly, his velocity is just as hard (95.5 mph fastball average) as it has ever been at any point in his major league career.

While he’s never been one who throws a ton of ground balls, he posted better numbers in those seasons because his home ballparks were more pitcher-friendly. 

Rodón should fare much better against a Rangers lineup with a .140 ISO average, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Rangers analysis

Texas will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has easily pitched better than his 4-13 record.

His 3.95 FIP is right in line with his 3.94 ERA, meaning his advanced stats don’t point to any sizeable regression.

However, Heaney has primarily struggled when facing New York. 

According to Baseball Savant, in 101 plate appearances, this Yankees roster has a .289 xBA against him, with a .394 xWOBA and .585 xSLG.

Heaney’s pitching arsenal consists mainly of three pitches: a fastball (52.7%), a slider (27.8%) and a changeup (16.2%).

He’ll occasionally mix in a curveball, which he throws roughly 3% of the time.

The problem is New York ranks second and sixth in runs above average against his two primary pitches.

And if he tries to utilize his changeup more, the Yankees hitters will likely pick up the speed because he’s lost a little bit of separation in velocity between the offspeed pitch and his fastball.

Heaney does have good command and often pitches in and around the plate to try and get hitters to chase. 

But the Yankees are a very patient group with a league-best 10.5% walk rate. Heaney will have come inside the zone at some point, and the Yankees will be ready to strike.

Yankees vs. Rangers pick

This is one of those matchups where the other team seems to have a pitcher’s number. According to the Action Network, Heaney’s teams are 89-90 (49.7%) in the games he starts.

However, against the Yankees, his teams are on a 0-6 skid and 1-6 in his career.

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Moreover, the Rangers are coming off a win in Heaney’s last start, and they’ve won back-to-back games in his starts just once this entire season.

Look for the Yankees to overwhelm the Rangers, and we’re getting a decent price with the visitors at -130 odds. 

Pick: Yankees moneyline (-130, FanDuel)