Exit Polls 2024: Annamalai’s gamble pays off? BJP races ahead of Congress in vote share in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll: Tamil Nadu may oblige the BJP in a state where it has historically been unsuccessful. According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 1-3 Lok Sabha seats in the state. 

While the INDIA bloc is expected to dominate the results with a projection of 33-37 of the 39 seats, a BJP debut here underscores the party’s efforts in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape, positioning it as a strong contender in the upcoming Assembly elections in 2026.

The NDA’s vote share stands at 22%, with the BJP accounting for 14% of that—an impressive 12% increase from the last election. In contrast, the India Alliance has seen its share drop from 52% to 46%, while the AIADMK remains steady at 21%, and others hold 11%.

The Annamalai factor?

A key factor in this shift, if exit polls hold , is K Annamalai, the state unit chief. At 39, Annamalai is the youngest-ever president of the state BJP and also a one-man army who many feel could bring a decisive difference to the party’s electoral fortunes in the state. With a vote share of just 3.7 and 2.8 per cent in the previous Lok Sabha and assembly elections, respectively, the BJP, like the Congress, has always been forced to piggyback on alliances, either led by the DMK or its arch-rival, AIADMK. In the past two elections, the BJP went with the AIADMK and drew a blank in the Lok Sabha but won four seats in the assembly. With Annamalai at the helm this time, the BJP took a big gamble, leading an alliance of its own with smaller caste-based parties.

The BJP’s Tamil Nadu strategy is to push the vote percentage from the current four per cent to double digits and then push for the desired 20-25 per cent. This will enable the party to dethrone the AIADMK and become the prime challenger to the DMK. “The common goal is to defeat the DMK, and I think the AIADMK also realizes this. In the next six to eight months, our focus remains on this objective. It’s too early to predict how things will unfold, as we are just in the exit poll stage. We might not be very sure how the next eight months will plan out,” Annamalai told India Today when asked about a possible reunion with AIADMK for the 2026 elections. 

In Coimbatore, Annamalai faces former city Mayor and DMK candidate P. Ganapaty Rajkumar, and AIADMK’s Singai G. Ramachandran. Exit polls suggest a victory for the DMK candidate, but Annamalai remains optimistic. “We would love to give you a pleasant surprise on June 4 and we should win comfortably. The larger picture is that Modi ji has to come back with a big mandate,” he said.