Potential Debby Prompts Florida Tropical Storm Alerts

T​ropical storm warnings and watches have been expanded on Florida’s West Coast ahead of a disturbance that could form into Tropical Storm Debby this weekend.

Soaking rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding from this system will likely spread toward Florida over the weekend, and then along the Southeast coast early next week.

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H​ere’s where tropical storm alerts are in effect: A tropical storm warning has been posted in Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of the Florida Keys as well as the southern tip of Florida and west-central Florida from north of Bonita Beach to the mouth of the Suwannee River.

The warning means tropical storm conditions (39- to 73-mph sustained winds) are expected within 36 hours. The watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

A storm surge watch has also been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Life-threatening storm surge is possible in this area.

Here’s where the disturbance is now, as well as its track and intensity forecast: The system is currently located over Cuba and traveling west-northwestward along the country’s spine.

This system is designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. This is a process that allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue advisories, including watches and warnings and a forecast path, for systems that have yet to develop but are expected to impact land areas within 48 hours.

T​he latest NHC forecast shows this system becoming Tropical Depression Four by sometime Saturday morning and then Tropical Storm Debby prior to landfall in Florida on Sunday or Sunday night. From there, it’s forecast to track near the Southeast coast early next week, where it could intensify again assuming it remains over water.

T​here is a possibility this system might slow down or even stall somewhere near the Southeast coast, which could prolong impacts.

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B​reaking Down The Impacts

F​looding Rainfall

The system is likely to bring rainfall to Florida this weekend. Heavy rain could linger in Florida early next week while also spreading up parts of the Georgia and Carolina coasts. That means flash flooding and isolated river flooding are possible in all of those areas.

If this system slows down or stalls, it could prolong impacts near the Southeast coast and somewhat inland – particularly heavy rain. The slower a tropical system moves, the greater the rainfall. A study released last year by the NHC found rainfall flooding was responsible for the most direct U.S. deaths from tropical storms and hurricanes since 2013.

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S​torm Surge

Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible on the western coast of Florida this weekend.

The surge could reach 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels if the peak surge arrives at high tide, from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Eventually, coastal flooding could affect the Southeast coast early next week, but it’s too early for details.

W​ind

M​uch of the Florida Peninsula will see gusty winds at times this weekend, especially in heavier bands of rain.

S​tronger wind gusts might cause some sporadic power outages or break tree limbs, especially near and inland from where the eventual center of the system tracks.

T​he Southeast coast is likely to be affected by strong winds early next week.

Be sure to check back frequently to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for forecast updates in the days ahead.

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