Exit poll: Will BJP outperform its former ally SAD in Punjab?

After parting ways, old allies Shiromani Akali Dal and Bharatiya Janta party battled it hard in the scorching heat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll indicates that the BJP may swell its vote share while the SAD may face disappointment when results come.

Punjab, which has 13 Lok Sabha seats, has seen all the BJP and the SAD fight almost all electoral battles together. This time, since both stood alone, the script is different. Traditionally, of the 13 Punjab seats, the SAD would contest 10, leaving the saffron party with three. In the just-completed Lok Sabha polls, however, both contested all 13.

EYE-OPENER FOR AKALI DAL

As per the exit poll, the BJP will see a substantial uptick in its vote share as compared to 2019, while the SAD’s vote share will dip quite a bit. The BJP is expected to get a 26 per cent vote share, which is a huge plus as compared to its nine percent in 2019. Meanwhile, the Akali Dal will bag only 20 per cent of the votes, a dive in performance from 2019 when it received 27 per cent.

The SAD, a party that once was an obvious choice for the people of Punjab, is staring at another jolt. The exit poll indicates a probability of only two or three seats for it. The BJP, on the other hand, is projected to grab two to four seats, indicating that it’s gaining ground.

The SAD, which formed two back to back state governments in 2007 and 2012, has been experiencing a downfall. In the 2017 Vidhan Sabha polls, it bagged 15 seats. But in 2022, the SAD was bundled out with just three seats in its tally. In the 2019 Lok sabha elections, the Akalis won just two seats — both went to Sukhbir Singh Badal and Harsimrat Kaur Badal.

Almost on its knees, the Akali Dal was hoping to revive itself in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, with an eye on the 2027 Assembly polls. But the India Today-Axis My India exit poll’s projection (and the scorching Punjab summers) is sure to make the party sweat. For the Akali Dal, a seat it cannot afford to lose is Bathinda, which has not only been its bastion. Three time MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal is contesting the seat.

The SAD and the BJP parted ways on farmers’ issues. Ever since, the BJP has inducted in its ranks many top guns from Punjab politics, like former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar, ex-MP Ravneet Bittu, and Preneet Kaur. Meanwhile, many old-timers have parted ways with Akalis.

As the SAD and the BJP fight for a bigger share of the state in the Lok Sabha, the exit poll projects the Congress as a leading party in Punjab, giving it between seven and nine seats. The Aam Aadmi Party, on the other hand, despite 92 seats in 2022 Vidhan Sabha polls, may not get a reason to smile this time. The exit poll predicts the party will win two seats at the most, with chances of it winning zero seats also in the cards.

It’s over to results now. June 4 will tell who stands where.