Tropical Storm Warnings issued as Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 takes aim at Florida

MIAMI – Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of Florida as a disturbance, now designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, takes aim at the Sunshine State.

The storm, which the National. Hurricane Center forecasts will likely eventually become Tropical Storm Debby, threatens the state with with torrential rain, strong winds, and even a potential storm surge.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida Peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge and the west coast of the Florida Peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 

A potential tropical cyclone designation permits the NHC to issue routine advisories on a system that has not yet developed into a tropical depression or tropical storm but brings a threat of 39-plus-mph winds to land within 48 hours.

WHAT IS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE?

Florida remains under a state of emergency on Friday as officials urge residents to prepare now. The National Hurricane Center is now highly confident that the disturbance will develop into at least a tropical depression – if not a tropical storm or hurricane – by the end of this weekend.

If the storm reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Debby. However, named storm or not, the system is promising several inches of rain for Florida, especially the Gulf Coast.

The disturbance’s chances of developing continue to increase as it moves closer to the Straits of Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

“That’s the opportunity for development,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “And there is growing confidence that we will likely get a storm out of this. Where it gets fuzzy is how strong does this system get?”

The National Hurricane Center said a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 10:30 a.m. ET Friday.

Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four?

According to the NHC, the tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic on Friday morning.

The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida by Friday night or Saturday, the NHC notes.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula,” the agency said. 

WHY ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON COULD TURN ACTIVE AGAIN IN EARLY AUGUST

Florida begins to prepare as flood threat increases

The FOX Forecast Center said showers and thunderstorms are already tearing off from the center of the tropical disturbance and impacting southern portions of Florida on Friday morning.

As the storm nears, rainfall will increase and spread from south to north across much of Florida through the weekend. Overall rainfall totals of 4-8 inches with maximum totals up to 12 inches are expected for portions of Florida and eventually up the southeastern U.S. coast. 

Those totals could bring both urban flooding and isolated river flooding, the NHC said.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected in the warned areas across southwestern Florida late Saturday into Saturday night, moving up the west coast of Florida Saturday night into Sunday. 

Storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible along portions of Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, the NHC warned.

Sand bag stations readied in Florida

“Florida, you guys have to prepare today (Friday),” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “I would recommend going to the gas station this morning. Go to the grocery store. Because once we have watches and warnings up, that’s when things start to get hectic and the lines get long.”

In Seminole County, home to the Orlando area, county officials are handing out free sand bags on Friday for residents to prepare for potential flooding.

“Every resident can take 15 bags per household,” FOX 35 Orlando’s Marley Capper told FOX Weather. “That is more than in the past, so they really want to make sure residents are prepped and ready.”

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

The FOX Forecast Center said there is growing confidence about what’s going to happen over the next 24 hours as the system moves into the Florida Straits and then into the Eastern Gulf. 

The next unclear aspect is the storm’s destination after Sunday and leading into Monday.

“We have this trough sitting to the north. Does it sink south enough to pick it up?” Merwin said. “Unfortunately, we also have a ridge of high pressure that’s baking the U.S. If that nudges in too fast, it can stall out the system. And then we could have an increase in the rain forecast and flooding potential for the state of Florida, even Georgia and South Carolina.”