2024-08-02 19:40:03
In a rush? Here’s everything you need to know — in less than a minute — about what’s happening in the tropics.
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued today as Invest 97L continues moving toward the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Thursday declared a state of emergency for 54 of Florida’s 67 counties ahead of the storm.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
“The latest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “Residents from Louisiana to Florida’s West Coast have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies.”
The National Hurricane Center is giving a medium chance — 60% — for development over the next 48 hours. Chances for development over the next seven days also have increased, to 90%.
Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida through the weekend.
“Keep in mind the tropical cyclone will be strengthening as it moves north, so the farther north it gets before landfall, the better of a shot that it has to attain hurricane status,” said the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
“Landfall could occur sometime between late Sunday and early Monday just about anywhere from Apalachicola to the Tampa Bay area,” NWS forecasters said.
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map does not show where the tropical wave will go. Although the colored area may look like the Hurricane’s Center “cone of concern,” the red area on the agency’s tropical outlook map actually signifies where a tropical cyclone could develop, not where a storm could go.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term that covers all tropical systems, including tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Aug. 2 as forecasters track the system:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.
Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend. Residents in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
“The latest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.
“There is low steering flow in the eastern Gulf so once it gets there, it’s kind of stuck and over warm water, it can intensify. At this point, it can go almost anywhere. There’s just nothing in the Gulf to steer it and there’s very concerning.
“I don’t trust it and don’t like it. Residents from Louisiana to Florida’s West Coast and Panhandle have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies. And if it sits there (in the Gulf) it can intensify. The slower it moves, the stronger it can become.”
Pastelok said forecasters will have a better idea on what will happen once the invest moves through the Caribbean islands and mountains, which could slow development and organization.
“Sunday, it could blow up in the eastern Gulf.”
“Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.
“Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least,” AccuWeather said.
“As the system approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.
“Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast. If the center migrates farther to the northwest, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf Coast.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Thursday in preparation for the potential landfall of a storm that could become the first “significant threat” to the state.
In a post on X Thursday afternoon, DeSantis said “Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance issued by @FLSERT and local emergency management officials.”
The striped areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
South Florida: Rain chances will increase heading into the upcoming weekend as a tropical wave approaches the region, according to the National Weather Service Miami. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Multiple rounds of heavy downpours could create the potential for localized flooding on Saturday and Sunday.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible on Sunday during the high tide cycle along the Gulf Coast and the southern portion of the peninsula along Florida Bay.
West Coast: Regardless of development, the tropical wave will bring plenty of deep tropical moisture across the area and allow for a slight risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the area over the weekend and into Monday, with the highest totals expected near the coast, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
Models Friday are showing a more progressive movement with the system as compared to Thursday, but still varying quite a bit in strength and organization.
East Coast: The tropical wave remains shrouded in mystery in terms of placement, track and strength, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne. Latest model guidance does focus greatest potential for development over the eastern Gulf and likely becoming a tropical depression sometime this weekend or early next week. Confidence in details, especially track and forecast intensity remain low at this time.
Expect deteriorating boating conditions likely into the weekend with forecast now showing speeds up to 15-20 knots Saturday night into Sunday. Seas generally 2-3 feet through Friday night, with the potential to build 3-4 feet near shore and 4-5 feet offshore this weekend. Mariners should remain aware of the potential for additional deterioration of boating conditions in the forecast for later this weekend, with the potential of tropical cyclone development over the eastern Gulf.
Northeast: Sunday’s weather is highly dependent on what Invest 97L does, according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville. Models are showing the low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning but have quite a bit of disagreement in its strength.
What is known is that ample moisture in the area coupled with this feature will provide increased chances for heavy rainfall over the region as it makes its way through. Rainfall amounts and temperature are highly dependent on how this feature forms Sunday.
Tallahassee: The main focus of the forecast continues to zero in on a tropical cyclone that is likely to be moving northward through the far eastern Gulf on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee. “Keep in mind the tropical cyclone will be strengthening as it moves north, so the farther north it gets before landfall, the better of a shot that it has to attain hurricane status.
“Landfall could occur sometime between late Sunday and early Monday just about anywhere from Apalachicola to the Tampa Bay area,” NWS forecasters said.
Pensacola, Panhandle: It is too soon to say if this system will have any impacts for the local area. Impacts are NOT expected locally this weekend, according to the National Weather Service Mobile.
NWS said there are two scenarios for Invest 97L, with forecasters leaning toward this scenario: “This system develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and lifts over the Florida peninsula or Big Bend region late in the weekend or early next week. This would potentially increase our rip current risk (if enough swell is generated), but impacts would be minimal here locally.”
The second scenario: “The system is slower to develop which allows it to move farther west into the Gulf of Mexico. In this scenario, weak steering currents would result in the system moving moving very slowly or stalling.
“This scenario means the system could eventually be more impactful for parts of the area next week. Such a scenario could mean impacts (if they were to occur) wouldn`t happen here locally until later in the week. Note that there is A LOT of uncertainty with this particular scenario.”
Hurricane forecast:A rainy Florida sideswipe or a festering Gulf storm threat?
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
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