NHC tracking Invest 97L: Will it hit Florida?

The National Hurricane Center keeps tracking a “well-defined tropical wave” in the Atlantic Ocean that is currently producing showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and could develop into Tropical Storm Debby and threaten the mainland U.S. this weekend or early next week.

The storm, designated as Invest 97L by the NHC, is approaching Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, where AccuWeather forecasters are warning residents from Louisiana to Florida’s west coast to remain ready.

“The latest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there,” said AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 of the state’s 67 counties in anticipation of what could be the first major storm of the hurricane season, with the potential to cause weekslong river flooding, the Pensacola News Journal reported.

In a post on X Thursday afternoon, DeSantis said “Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance issued by @FLSERT and local emergency management officials.”

Tropical depression could form this weekend

The NHC said Thursday afternoon that development of this system remains unlikely during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast “to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles,” which include Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica and Puerto Rico.

“A tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida,” the NHC said in an advisory Thursday afternoon.

The hurricane center also said interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system, which it says has a 70% chance of formation within the next seven days.

Bottom line: Be prepared

Although an organized storm has not formed yet, forecasters still advised folks to be prepared: “Residents from Louisiana to Florida’s west coast have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies,” Pastelok said.

The National Weather Service in Tampa said, “for now, the bottom line is monitor the progress of this system, and check your hurricane preparedness plan.”

With heavy rain in the forecast, “consider your vulnerability to flooding,” the NWS said.

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Atlantic storm tracker

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Invest 97L spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

What needs to happen for Invest 97L to become Tropical Storm Debby?

If its winds reach 39 mph, the system would receive the name Tropical Storm Debby, and it would be the fourth named storm of what’s predicted to be an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

A​ugust, September and October are usually considered the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to Weather.com. That’s because water temperatures are often at their warmest, wind shear is at its lowest and humidity has increased across the basin, all of which contribute to hurricane formation.

Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network-Florida

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.