2024-06-01 18:38:02
Axis my India’s break up predicts 20-22 to DMK, 6-8 to Congress, 0-2 to AIADMK, and 1-3 for the BJP NDA alliance with an increase in vote share up to 14 percent. While, C Voter predicts 37-39 for INDIA bloc, up to 2 seats for the NDA alliance and a blank for the AIADMK.
Poll of polls
| Pollsters | NDA | INDIA |
| Axis My India | 3 | 35 |
| C Voter | 2 | 38 |
| MATRIZE | 1 | 37 |
| PMARQ | 0 | 38 |
| ETG | 3 | 36 |
| Poll of polls | 2 | 36 |
Thirty-nine Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 19 in the first phase of the general election.
The EC announced that Tamil Nadu registered a voter turnout of 69.46%, almost 3.5 percentage points lower than in the 2019 general elections. The Election Commission had earlier announced a 72% turnout, but it revised the figure later.
In the previous 2019 elections, the DMK-led alliance triumphed in 38 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.
Alliances
The DMK contested on 22 seats and spearheads an eight-party alliance comprising the Congress (9), CPI(M) (2), CPI (2), Indian Muslim League (1), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (2), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (1), and Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi (KMDK), whose candidate will run on the DMK symbol.
On the other side, the AIADMK (34 seats) lead an alliance with four parties, including the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (5 seats). Additionally, candidates from Puthiya Tamilagam and Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) contested on the AIADMK symbol.
The BJP, contesting on 23 seats, formed an alliance with nine other parties, such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi (10 seats), Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) (3), and splinter groups of the AIADMK, including former chief minister O. Pannerselvam (1) standing as an independent, and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (2) led by TTV Dhinakaran. Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi, Puthiya Needhi Katchi, and Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam will each contest on the BJP symbol.
With the AIADMK and BJP candidates vying to challenge the DMK, some closely contested battles are expected within these alliances. Notably, a total of 21 incumbents from the INDIA bloc have been renominated across Tamil Nadu, including prominent figures like Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, Su. Venkatesan, S Jothimani, TR Baalu, and Thamizhachi Thangapandian.
Direct contests
The election witnessed direct face-offs among DMK, AIADMK, and BJP candidates in ten constituencies, such as Coimbatore, Chennai North, Chennai South, Vellore, and others.
Notably, in Chennai South, the contest involve the incumbent MP Thamizhachi Thangapandian (DMK), J. Jayavardhan (AIADMK), and Tamilisai Soundararajan (BJP).
Key issues in the election have revolved around the DMK-Congress alliance’s stance on federalism, portraying the BJP as a threat to minority and Dalit communities, and criticising the alleged bias against Tamil students in exams like NEET.
Opposition parties have also highlighted issues such as corruption allegations against Stalin’s family, the drug trade, and high electricity prices in the state.
BJP-NDA prospects
The BJP is hoping to make major headway in a state that has never given it more than four seats (in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections). It failed to open its account in 2019 while its partner, the AIADMK, managed to win the seat of Theni by a narrow vote margin of 6.2%.
High-octane poll campaigning in Tamil Nadu this time around saw the BJP go all out and rake up hot-button issues like Katchatheevu to lure voters away from the Congress as well as regional parties like the AIADMK (its past ally) or M K Stalin’s DMK (which has allied with the Congress in the 2024 elections).
Revealing the importance of the state in the BJP’s poll strategy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited Tamil Nadu at least 8 times in the past four months and has held several rallies and roadshows to drum up support for the party as well as its star candidate K Annamalai.
Seats of interest for the BJP
The BJP contested on 23 seats, while it’s much smaller allies fought on the remaining 16 seats. BJP state unit chief Annamalaiwas pitted from Coimbatore, a seat that the party lost by a vote margin of 14.6% in the 2019 polls to P. R. Natarajan of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPM.
Lok Sabha seats of Chidambaram, Vellore and Dharmapuri, Theni and Tiruppur saw a neck to neck fight where victory margin was less than 10% in the last Lok Sabha polls.
