Tropical Storm Kirk expected to become major hurricane

FIRST WARNING WEATHER YOU GO ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST WEEK, AND I’LL BE UPFRONT WITH YOU. THE DATA THAT WE’RE COMING IN, IT LOOKS LIKE, WELL, THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF A VERY STRONG GULF STORM, BUT NOW THINGS STARTING TO GET A LITTLE CLEARER. IT MAY NOT BE A VERY STRONG SYSTEM WHERE I THINK OUR NEXT NAME SYSTEM IS GOING TO FORM WAY, WAY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS LITTLE AREA OVER HERE COULD BE NAMED LESLIE KIRK, EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE, BUT IT’S THE AREA OF CONCERN THAT’S IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AGAIN AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO, THAT’S THE ONE THAT’S GOING TO GRAB OUR MOST ATTENTION HERE. 40% CHANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, MAYBE A 10% CHANCE. IT’S DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, I’VE BEEN WATCHING THIS SYSTEM ALL DAY, FORECAST DATA. IT ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON MAYBE STORMS EARLIER THAT WERE OFF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. BUT THERE IS SOME ENERGY THAT WE KNOW THAT IS THERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. WE LOOK AT WATER TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDITY, THIS DEEP, DARK GREEN, THAT IS THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY YOU COULD FIND. SO PLENTY OF HUMIDITY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN IN THE TRACK ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, WE FIND WIND SHEAR. THIS IS STRONGER WIND SHEAR SHOWN IN THE BRIGHTER SHADES. THE RED. WHEN YOU SEE THE BLUE, THE LACK OF COLORS. THAT IS A LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND YOU SEE THE PATH KIND OF TENDS TO OPEN UP AS WE GO MIDWEEK FOR THE CHANCE OF THOSE SYSTEMS TO BE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND HEADING INTO THE GULF, THAT GIVES IT A CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. SO THE COMBINATION IS THERE FOR RIGHT CONDITIONS, BUT THE FORECAST DATA JUST HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT OF SHOWING ORGANIZATION A REAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM. IT’S GOT BROAD AREAS OF SPIN AND LOW PRESSURE HERE AND THERE. WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LATELY IS SHOWING BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE ADDITION OF MORE TROPICAL HUMIDITY. AND THAT INCREASES OUR RAIN CHANCES. SO BY THE FEELING OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE SHOULD PROBABLY GET AROUND TO STORMS HERE AND THERE. LOOK AT FLORIDA AND IT’S MORE LIKELY THEY GET SOME STORMS. BUT LOOK AT THE AREAS OF SPIN THAT ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. STILL HERE GOES ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK TOO, AND THERE STILL IS A LOT TO TAKE AWAY FROM THIS FORECAST THAT IT COULD GO ANYWHERE. HERE’S THE FORECAST OUT OF EUROPE AND IT’S BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT AREAS OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO CARIBBEAN, TO THE GULF. IT’S BEEN ALSO STREAMING FOR SOME HUMIDITY HERE TOO. THAT’S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT’S WHERE YOU’RE GOING TO SEE THE INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, WHEN I TALKED ABOUT AT THE TOP OF THE NEWSCAST HERE AT TEN WAS MORE FORECAST DATA STARTING TO COME IN LINE, WHICH SHOWS UP HERE GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THESE SYSTEMS, MORE GOING SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW, THE LOW, LIKELIEST, HEAVIEST RAIN HERE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IS ALONG THE COAST. AND THE LIKELIEST RAIN EVEN EAST OF US. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SO THE FORECAST DATA IS STILL INCONSISTENT, BUT WE’RE STARTING TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE FOCUSED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE A STRONG HURRICANE OR EVEN A HURRICANE AT ALL, MAY JUST BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AND THAT MEANS THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN OU