Offaly weatherman debunks Ireland Hurricane Kirk threat as he gives forecast update

An Offaly-based weather forecaster has debunked reports of a hurricane heading to Ireland over the next few days.

Cathal Nolan from Ireland’s Weather Channel was responding to media reports suggesting the remnants of Hurricane Kirk, currently over the Atlantic, could hit Ireland.

One report suggested the tropical storm was “coming for Ireland” but Cathal has poured some cold water on the dramatic headlines.

Responding on social media, he said: “And so it begins. Just to make it very clear, Tropical Storm Kirk is expected to become a Major Hurricane between now and the weekend before it takes a turn to the Northeast where it will be picked up by the jet stream and head towards Europe. That much we are sure of.

“However, there is virtually no certainty that this Hurricane, which by then will be an extra-tropical storm will impact Ireland and we certainly can’t predict what areas this storm would impact as claimed in the headline above. There’s simply too much uncertainty to have any certainty just yet.

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“This in fact is emphasised by this morning’s ECMWF and GFS model runs which now show the system being negatively impacted by a developing northeasterly airflow, losing its momentum and never reaching Ireland or Europe as it just spins itself out in the Atlantic. Is this model run true? It could be.

“Again, what’s certain is that we can’t be certain. Over the next week the models will continue to oscillate and change between various scenarios, with multiple outcomes all likely at various points. We can only keep up to date with this events and comment on them for what they are and try to establish patterns or trends.

“I’ll have more updates on Hurricane Kirk throughout the next week. But my take home message would be to please don’t be worried about this storm, which may never even reach our neck of the woods,” he concluded.

In an earlier post on Monday, Cathal described the weather system as “one we need to watch.”

“Evening GFS models continue to show what is currently Tropical Depression Number 12, which will become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3 or above) before weakening, in our vicinity in little over a weeks time.

“This is light years away in terms of providing a meteorological forecast for such tropical storms, but… it’s certainly a storm we need to pay very close attention to on this side of the Atlantic.”

Meanwhile, Met Éireann is predicting some settled weather for Ireland before another low pressure u-turn brings more unsettled weather from the Atlantic at the weekend.

The national forecaster’s latest update predicts the week to be “mostly dry and settled at first” before “turning more unsettled for the weekend.”

They say Tuesday will be “largely dry with plenty of sunshine and just a few isolated light showers. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees in moderate northerly winds.

“It will be dry with mostly clear skies on Tuesday night. Lowest temperatures of 4 to 8 generally but a little milder on the east coast with moderate northeast breezes.”

The forecast continues decent for the rest of the week before the weekend’s big change.

“Another bright and mostly dry day on Wednesday with lots of sunshine and just scattered cloud. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees in moderate easterly winds. Dry and mostly clear on Wednesday night. Lowest temperatures generally ranging from 6 to 9 degrees with light easterly breezes,” Met Éireann predicts.

“Thursday is expected to be a generally dry day with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. However, there is the chance of a few showers developing in the southwest later in the day. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees in moderate southeast winds. Cloudy and rather breezy on Thursday night with the chance of a few light showers in the south and west but it will be dry elsewhere. Lowest temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees in freshening southerly winds.

“Breezy on Friday with plenty of cloud and rain is likely to develop in the south and west by evening time. Maximum temperatures of 14 to 17 degrees in fresh and gusty southerly winds.

“It looks set to be a rather unsettled weekend with low pressure in the Atlantic feeding in bands of rain and showers at times.” This follows last weekend’s brutal stormy conditions that led to huge rainfall and flooding, mostly in the south of the country.