Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense have been even better than you think

(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Sept. 30, 2024.)

Let’s count the ways Jayden Daniels is transforming the Washington Commanders and the NFC East race.

The Commanders moved atop the NFC East at 3-1 with a 42-14 domination at Arizona. Their Daniels-quarterbacked offense is setting the bar higher than anyone could have realistically expected. As in, prime Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers high.

Washington has scored on 68 percent of its drives, the highest rate through four games for any team since at least 2000, per TruMedia. You might recognize the teams right behind the Commanders on that list. Not even Brady’s 2007 New England Patriots scored this frequently to start their historic unbeaten regular season.

The Commanders’ offense has produced at least 8.0 EPA in each game this season. Washington played 387 regular-season games from 2000 to 2023 without hitting that mark in more than two successive games within a season.

The four-game streak is the second-longest in the league since 2000 for any team with a rookie starting quarterback. Russell Wilson’s 2012 Seattle Seahawks strung together five such games. Washington can tie that record at home against Cleveland in Week 5.

The table above lays out the longest such streaks with rookie quarterbacks since 2000. Almost all of the other streaks unfolded later in the season, after quarterbacks had some experience.

Before the season, five NFL execs combined to predict Washington would finish 14th in the NFC this season. One of the execs had the Commanders finishing sixth and winning the NFC East. Why?

“I put them as high upside for a few reasons,” the exec said Sunday night. “One, I was down on the Giants. Two, I was down on Dallas. Three, I was a toss-up on Philly. Four, we are talking about the Heisman winner coming in and possibly being electric, paired with the offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) who is more prepared than anyone in the league, right now, to handle that player. It’s a perfect marriage.”

One of the execs ranking Washington lower heading into the season called the NFC East a “crapshoot” now. He gave Washington the edge, followed by Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants. He noted that Daniels is a “difference maker” who is hard to defend, and said Dan Quinn, the new coach, is instilling belief in Washington. But he also cautioned that it remains early, and Daniels still must prove he can hold up physically after sometimes taking big hits in college.

Daniels is completing 82 percent of his passes, best in league history through four games among players with at least 75 attempts, per Fox. Brady was at 79.2 percent in 2007. Daniels has completed 71 percent (20 of 28) of passes traveling at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. That leads the league comfortably this season (Brock Purdy is second at 66 percent).

What happens when defenses get a better read on the Commanders’ tendencies?

“The great teams have a next pitch,” the exec said. “It will be interesting to see what it looks like as it goes.”

The schedule could help even out things. Washington faces Cleveland, Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh over the next six weeks. Those teams are collectively allowing 18.5 points per game to opposing offenses.

The Commanders won’t face the Eagles or Cowboys, who are both 2-2, until Week 11, with four of their final seven games against those two opponents.

(Photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)