Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu called the death of Nasrallah “the knockout punch”.
Israel’s military is celebrating what it sees as a turning point in the region’s long-running conflicts, following a sustained campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the killing of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Pager blasts: A coldly calculated prelude
- The campaign leading to Nasrallah’s assassination did not begin in the skies, but in the unlikeliest of places: pagers. In a remarkable demonstration of technological and intelligence superiority, Israel intensified the conflict on September 17 by detonating pagers and communication devices across Lebanon and Syria, killing over 13 Hezbollah members and critically wounding thousands. The scale of the blasts sent shockwaves across Hezbollah’s network, followed by near-simultaneous strikes that incapacitated communication channels.
- Although Israel never officially claimed responsibility for the explosions, they set the stage for a more traditional bombing campaign, marking a chilling innovation in modern warfare.
- Over the next 12 days, Israel launched an unrelenting series of strikes, targeting Hezbollah commanders, rocket launchers, and military installations across Lebanon. The strategic decapitation culminated with Nasrallah’s death on September 28, a move Israeli officials celebrated as “long overdue.”
- The killing of Nasrallah was by no means Israel’s first elimination of high-profile targets since Hamas’s October 7 attack.
- In July, a bombing widely blamed on Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran guesthouse, shortly after another Israeli strike in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah operations chief.
Why it matters
- Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu called the death of Nasrallah “the knockout punch” to the “main engine of Iran’s axis of evil,” referring to the network of Iranian-backed militias spread across theMiddle East . - After nearly a year of conflict, sparked by Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel last October, the Israeli military now claims to have neutralized two of its most potent enemies —Hamas’s
- As per a Bloomberg report, the jubilation in Israel, reflected in bold newspaper headlines declaring a “new Middle East,” has shifted the national mood from one of fear and uncertainty to one of triumph.
- For Israel, Nasrallah’s death is seen as a defining moment. Hezbollah, with its vast arsenal of missiles and deep ties to Iran, had long been one of the most significant threats facing Israel. “Israel changed the rules of the game,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security, told the Bloomberg. “Once Hezbollah is paralyzed, the entire axis is paralyzed. Iran is vulnerable.”
- Hezbollah has been Iran’s most powerful proxy, serving as a critical element of its deterrence against Israel. For decades, the group’s military might and deep entrenchment in Lebanon’s political system made it a formidable adversary.
- Nasrallah’s death now leaves a power vacuum in both Hezbollah and the wider network of Iranian-backed militias across the region. From Gaza’s Hamas to Yemen’s Houthis, these groups have relied on Hezbollah’s military expertise and leadership in their resistance against Israel and other regional powers. The potential disruption to this network could significantly weaken Iran’s influence, reshuffling the region’s balance of power.
- However, for Lebanon, the situation is far more precarious. Hezbollah’s weakening could lead to internal instability, especially as the country continues to suffer through one of the world’s worst economic crises. “It’s a disaster,” said Laila Al Amine, a director for Mercy Corps in Lebanon, reflecting on the displacement of tens of thousands of Lebanese citizens fleeing Israeli airstrikes. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati warned that over a million people could soon be displaced, the largest in the country’s history, adding yet another layer to the nation’s already overwhelming challenges.
The big picture
- Hezbollah’s domination of Lebanese politics for more than two decades has left the country in a delicate balance. Despite its classification as a terrorist organization by the US and several Gulf states, Hezbollah has maintained significant support among Lebanon’s Shiite population, providing social services and functioning as a parallel state within the country. However, Nasrallah’s death has not only weakened the group militarily but has also shaken its standing within Lebanon.
- Israel’s nearly continuous bombardment of southern Lebanon has devastated the region. Entire towns have been reduced to rubble, and the displacement crisis is worsening by the day. As Hezbollah’s military capabilities dwindle, fears are rising that internal strife could break out in Lebanon, a country already fractured by sectarian divides and long-standing political instability.
- According to reports, Hezbollah supporters in Beirut were seen reacting with tears and bursts of gunfire upon confirmation of Nasrallah’s death. In the group’s stronghold of southern Beirut, gunfire erupted into the night, marking both grief and a sense of foreboding about what comes next.
- Even Hezbollah’s staunchest opponents are wary of the potential chaos Nasrallah’s death could unleash. “What will happen to us now?” said Yusra, a 60-year-old woman who fled the border town of Yareen after Israeli bombs destroyed her home. “I don’t know if it’s there anymore,” she said, now taking refuge in a school-turned-shelter in Beirut. The fear of internal clashes—similar to those seen in 2008 and 2021—is mounting among the country’s fractured political players.
What they’re saying
- The assassination of Nasrallah serves as a grim admonition to Israel’s adversaries, according to Middle East specialist James Dorsey. “The killing of Nasrallah is icing on the cake,” he told AFP. “If you are Iran, if you are Syria, if you are the Huthis, if you are an Iraqi Shiite group and frankly a lot of other groups in the Middle East, you are going to look into your security very closely.”
- According to an Israeli security official, many of the region’s rulers were grateful Israel was going after militant groups. “The region is watching the war… They watch very, very carefully,” the Israeli security official said. “They know that we are now fighting their war.”
- Meanwhile, among Israel’s political spectrum, opinions on the strikes and their broader implications vary. Some Israeli liberals, while supportive of the military’s efforts, are pushing for a diplomatic solution. “It’s time for a deal,” editorialized the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper, advocating for diplomatic negotiations that would return Israeli hostages held by Hamas and reduce the chances of further escalation.
- However, voices on the right are urging the Israeli military to continue its aggressive posture. “Israel would do well not to bask overmuch in its accomplishments,” wrote Yoav Limor in the conservative Israel Hayom newspaper, warning that only through further military action, including a potential ground invasion of Lebanon, could Israel ensure its security.
- For Netanyahu, Nasrallah’s death and the broader military campaign against Hezbollah represent a vindication of his long-standing hardline stance on Israel’s enemies. In a fiery speech at the United Nations General Assembly last week, Netanyahu declared that Israel had “settled the score” with Nasrallah and that the region was on the cusp of “a historic turning point.”
- “We are winning. We are determined to continue striking our enemies, returning our residents to their homes and bringing back all our hostages. We do not forget them for a moment,” Netanyahu added.
Between the lines
- Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah has been the deadliest since the 34-day war between the two sides in 2006, and Nasrallah’s death represents the most significant blow to the group since its inception. But the broader implications of this assassination reach beyond Lebanon’s borders.
- Iran, Hezbollah’s primary benefactor, now faces a strategic dilemma. For years, Hezbollah has acted as Iran’s deterrent against Israeli aggression. Its missile stockpiles and military capabilities were designed to counter any Israeli attempt to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now, with Hezbollah weakened, Iran must decide whether to retaliate or recalibrate its strategy.
- So far, Iran’s response has been muted. President Masoud Pezeshkian, while stopping short of threatening direct retaliation, has warned that Nasrallah’s death will have consequences. Yet Tehran appears cautious, likely unwilling to escalate tensions further at a time when its own economy is under strain from international sanctions.
- According to Vali Nasr, a former high-ranking State Department adviser and current professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, it is improbable that Tehran will take overt measures to support Hezbollah.
- “Iran is not ready right now because it’s not the right time,” Vali Nasr told the Wall Street Journal. “But there will be a right time.”
- Iran’s reluctance to retaliate immediately may also stem from the broader geopolitical shifts taking place in the region. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led states, which have historically been at odds with Iran, have been quietly supportive of Israel’s moves against Hezbollah, seeing the group as a destabilizing force in the region. While Saudi Arabia has publicly called for peace, its silence on Nasrallah’s death signals a shift in the regional dynamics.
What’s next
- The question of whether Israel will launch a ground invasion into Lebanon looms large. While Israeli forces have achieved significant success from the air, many military analysts believe that a ground operation might be necessary to fully dismantle Hezbollah’s remaining military infrastructure. A ground war, however, would be risky, potentially dragging Israel into a protracted conflict reminiscent of its 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
- For Lebanon, the immediate concern is survival. The country, already reeling from economic collapse, is now facing the largest displacement crisis in its history. Humanitarian organizations warn that shelters are quickly becoming overcrowded, and with no functioning government to coordinate relief efforts, the situation is becoming dire.
- The broader region is also on edge. The weakening of Hezbollah could embolden other anti-Iranian forces across the Middle East, from Syria to Iraq, to challenge Tehran’s influence. At the same time, the vacuum left by Nasrallah’s death could lead to new power struggles within Hezbollah, and even within Lebanon itself.
(With inputs from agencies)
