2024 MLB playoffs lineups and pitching staffs, ranked

Ranking the October clubs is a counter-intuitive exercise in that it tries to apply some sense of order to a month that is anything but orderly or ordinary.

Postseason baseball is just different – the tension, the schedule, the way rosters are distilled to their most essential elements. But we can still utilize what we’ve witnessed these last six months to at least try to figure out how these squads stack up against each other.

So at the risk – nay, certainty – of being wrong and/or upsetting strangers on the internet, here’s how we think the lineups and pitching staffs (as in, the rotations and bullpens combined) of the teams still in the mathematical mix stack up.

To the (subjective) rankings!

The Padres targeted pitching, pitching and more pitching last offseason and at this summer’s Trade Deadline, and it’s made them a dangerous October entry. Michael King came over in the Juan Soto trade and has paired with fellow trade acquisition Dylan Cease to make a fearsome twosome atop the rotation, where veterans Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are both strong mid-series options. And the bullpen might be the greatest strength, thanks to the in-season acquisitions of Tanner Scott and Jason Adam, both of whom have closing experience. The Padres have a stellar setup situation in front of closer Robert Suarez, though Suarez himself has become the biggest concern of all here with late-season struggles.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who have combined for a 2.97 ERA over the past two postseasons, will be rested and ready for Game 1 of the NL Division Series, and lefties Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez — both of whom were All-Stars this year — are solid options beyond that prominent pair (though Suárez has not been very effective in the second half). This is a new-look — and very strong — back end of the Phillies’ bullpen, thanks to the in-season acquisition of closer Carlos Estévez. A well-rounded group.

The evolution of the Astros’ starting staff – from an injury-riddled mess to an in-season return to elite status – has been quite a sight to behold. Though Justin Verlander hasn’t been up to his usual standard, Framber Valdez remains an ace among aces, veteran Deadline acquisition Yusei Kikuchi has been a win machine, young righty Hunter Brown has broken out and Ronel Blanco has been a splendid surprise to give Houston plenty of rotation options. The Astros’ goal here will be to get a lead through six or so and then ride Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader as hard as they possibly can.

Gerrit Cole’s had some fits and starts after missing time with an elbow issue, but he’s looked more like himself in the second half. Carlos Rodón also pitched better in the second half, and Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt round out a rotation that can be great but must prove it. The bullpen lacks the swing-and-miss that plays up in the postseason, Clay Holmes has famously struggled to close out games this season, trade acquisition Mark Leiter Jr. has not panned out as planned and Nestor Cortes’ late-season elbow issue further complicates matters. But new closer Luke Weaver and setup man Tommy Kahnle have helped Aaron Boone piece things together.

Once again, the Dodgers’ rotation is limping into October, with Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone and a bunch of others on the injured list. But the in-season trade for Jack Flaherty has been a saving grace, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s late-season return is a huge boost. Where the Dodgers ultimately should rank on this list comes down to what they get from Walker Buehler, who has been shaky in his return from Tommy John but has as much October pedigree as anybody in the game and started to look like his old self in September. As for the bullpen, the trade for new closer Michael Kopech was a major plus, and Dave Roberts has a wealth of setup options, so we’ll put the Dodgers relatively high.

The Guards’ biggest asset might be October’s ample off-days, because they are going to be uber-reliant on the best bullpen in baseball. Emmanuel Clase is essentially unhittable in the ninth, and young relievers Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin have done a brilliant job setting him up. The problem with a comprehensive ranking such as this is a starting staff that lacks authority. Sophomore Tanner Bibee is the de facto ace, in-season signee Matthew Boyd has been terrific in his return from Tommy John, but trade acquisition Alex Cobb has spent the vast majority of the season on the shelf, Gavin Williams is erratic and unexpected stalwart Ben Lively has been less effective in the second half. Cleveland would rank higher if there were even more off-days.

Chris Sale’s absence for the Wild Card Series makes the Braves difficult to project but it’s definitely a blow to their ranking here. To get this far, they survived the loss of Spencer Strider, who made just two starts before needing Tommy John, thanks to Sale’s revitalization, as well as a surprisingly stellar starting turn from Reynaldo López and the emergence of a new Spencer (Schwellenbach). López had shoulder issues in the second half but looked sharp in his last start, and Max Fried, despite a shaky October history, is capable of rising to the occasion. The strong bullpen is anchored by one of the best closers in baseball in Raisel Iglesias.

This staff has been the opposite of Cleveland’s the bulk of this year — excellent in the rotation, iffy in the ‘pen. The Royals have cobbled together a terrific starting staff and are comfortable handing the ball to any of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer in a short series. They might need length from that group, depending on whether the strides we’ve seen from the bullpen in the home stretch can last into October. Trade acquisition Lucas Erceg has been a monumental pickup. It will be interesting to see how or if the Royals deploy depth starters Michael Lorenzen and Alec Marsh.

That the Brewers are back here without Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff is a testament to their organizational strengths at identifying talent (Tobias Myers’ rookie season was an unexpected gem), and they have also upgraded their rotation beyond ace Freddy Peralta in-season with the additions of Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas. Still, this is not a starting group that melts faces or anything like that, so a lot of the onus will be on a terrific bullpen that returned Devin Williams from injury midyear.

The Mets bought low on Sean Manaea and Luis Severino to great effect, and David Peterson has had a breakthrough year to give this club a much better rotation than anticipated when Kodai Senga went down in Spring Training with a shoulder issue and returned for a single start before hitting the IL again with a calf issue. Despite the sustained absence, Senga could potentially be on the playoff roster, so he’s an X-factor. The bullpen, meanwhile, will of course revolve around Edwin Díaz, who has had a roller-coaster year but has been at his best in the home stretch.

The Orioles’ fate rests on Corbin Burnes and midseason trade acquisition Zach Eflin delivering on this stage, because the injury issues with this group – most notably Grayson Rodriguez officially getting shut down with a right lat/teres strain – dampens our enthusiasm. With the Craig Kimbrel experiment having flamed out, the bullpen revolves around trade acquisition Seranthony Domínguez in the closer role. The injuries have just been a huge bummer here and led us to put the O’s low on the ranking, but the ability to allocate most of the innings to your best arms obviously makes October its own animal. So stay tuned.

Please don’t take the Tigers’ ranking here as a Detroit diss. It’s just that it’s hard to know how to assess such an usual setup. Detroit has a true ace in likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. And then? It’s basically bullpen time, baby! A.J. Hinch has not been shy about aggressive hooks and utilizing a relief corps in which the unheralded likes of Brant Hurter, Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, Brenan Hanifee, Will Vest and Bryan Sammons have been getting big outs aplenty (even top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe got in on the fun at year’s end). The Tigers went on a wild run the last two months despite having, by far, the fewest starters’ innings in MLB in that span. So even with the added off-days, it’s hard to know if the Tigers can sustain this kind of performance in all the high-leverage moments the postseason presents. But don’t knock what works!

The Dodgers have had issues from the second half of their lineup at times. But when the top of the lineup is Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernández, you’re going to rate pretty high on a list like this. The question, of course, is whether the Dodgers’ stars play like stars in October, when the spotlight and the scouting reports are more intense (Betts and Freeman were invisible when the Dodgers were unceremoniously swept by the D-backs in the NLDS last year). A late-season ankle injury prevented Freeman from traveling with the club the last weekend of the season, but he is expected to be ready for the postseason.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are almost enough to justify putting the Yankees in the top spot. But it should go without saying that those two can’t do it all in October. The addition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the breakout of rookie catcher Austin Wells have been big boosts. We’ll have to see if the late-season spark from Gleyber Torres in the leadoff spot can carry into October, and Giancarlo Stanton’s booming but inconsistent bat is the biggest X-factor of all.

Another club you could justifiably put at No. 1, because the Padres have the best percentage of balls in play on swings and the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Those are skills that play up in October. The emergence of rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill, a career year for Jurickson Profar, an in-season trade for Luis Arraez and star-caliber performances from Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have helped the Friars overcome Soto’s departure.

We’ve all seen what happens when this lineup is jamming, and it’s so, so fun – like a beer league softball team lighting up October. Unfortunately, we’ve also all seen what happens when this lineup goes cold – a run shortage that stopped their World Series run in its tracks (especially in a no-hitter) in 2022 and unexpectedly swung the NLCS in the Diamondbacks’ direction last year. But obviously, when Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Co. are clicking, it’s a joy to watch.

Per usual, the Astros are tough to K, and we know what Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are capable of in October. No other postseason entrant possesses Houston’s depth of experience, and the Astros have enjoyed a drastic uptick in offensive performance from the catching spot with Yainer Diaz’s takeover of the lead role. But with Alvarez’s latest knee injury putting his Wild Card Series availability in question, the Astros might not be at full strength, so that drops them a spot or two in these rankings.

A serious second-half drop-off in slugging (especially for star catcher Adley Rutschman) affects the O’s placement on this list. But it’s not hard to imagine this lineup catching on again now that Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, Ryan Mountcastle and Heston Kjerstad have returned from injury. It was only three games, but Gunnar Henderson took kindly to the October stage in an otherwise disappointing ALDS last year (6-for-12), so he might just be built for this.

An incredibly resilient group, given that the Brewers actually averaged more runs per game (4.86) after losing Christian Yelich to back surgery in late July than they did prior (4.74). A lot of that has to do with 20-year-old Jackson Chourio developing into a star right before our eyes. The Brewers also have the dynamic Willy Adames, one of the most productive catchers in the game in William Contreras, tons of speed (particularly from second baseman Brice Turang, who swiped 50 bags) and tons of youthful upside.

In the span of a year, the Braves went from a HISTORICALLY GREAT OFFENSE to just … an offense. Losing Ronald Acuña Jr. is a huge reason for that, but the Braves also experienced steep offensive downturns from Matt Olson, Austin Riley (before he got hurt), Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, etc. The good news is that Marcell Ozuna was a force of nature this year, and Atlanta got an uptick in offense from Olson, Harris and the July trade that brought back Jorge Soler.

Even amid down years for Pete Alonso (down in that he fell short of 40 homers), J.D. Martinez and Brandon Nimmo and a second-half falloff from catcher Francisco Alvarez, the Mets were top seven in MLB in weighted runs created plus this season, thanks in large measure to Francisco Lindor powering them in the leadoff spot with one of the best seasons of his career and Mark Vientos emerging at third. Lindor’s iffy back is a huge factor here, and Alvarez dealt with back spasms in the final weekend.

This version of the Guards has shown a lot more home run capability than the one that reached Game 5 of the ALDS against the Yankees two years ago. The great José Ramírez has had more power support this year from Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan and unexpected All-Star David Fry, and Cleveland’s aggressiveness on the basepaths is an asset in October. But this club does not get on base at a league-average rate, so Kwan’s second-half slump in the leadoff spot is a concern.

A rising tide lifts all boats, and so it is with Bobby Witt Jr. — a truly magnetic player whose power and speed lifted the Royals into contention. Kansas City has also benefited from a vintage season from Salvador Perez. But the lineup is not especially deep in terms of impact offense, as evidenced by a severe run shortage in September (three runs per game). Where the Royals should rank is dependent on the status of 97-RBIs first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who has been out since Aug. 29 with a broken thumb.

Riley Greene and Matt Vierling are the only Tigers with at least 400 plate appearances whose OPS+ marks are at least league average (100), though the Tigers were without the impact bat of Kerry Carpenter for about three months, and Parker Meadows has been a difference-maker atop the lineup since returning from a hamstring issue in early August. Anyway, no one will confuse this offense with the 1927 Yankees, but the Tigers have that which cannot be measured — belief!