Colorado State vs Texas football prediction, scouting report

AUSTIN, Texas — This is big, bad Texas.

This is a team that was in the College Football Playoff in 2023 and will be quite disappointed to not make a return in the expanded CFP in 2024.

And Colorado State has to try and create problems for the No. 4 Longhorns in the season opener (1:30 p.m. MT Saturday, Aug. 31).

Here are keys to the game and a prediction:

All in on clean, aggressive attack

Everyone knows a huge underdog (Texas is favored by a whopping 34.5 points) cannot lose a turnover battle if it wants to be competitive. The Rams simply must protect the ball to have hopes of staying in the game.

CSU coach Jay Norvell has said there is a path to victory in every game, but in one like this, a team has to do a bit different. That means some aggressive calls. Maybe going for it on a fourth down you wouldn’t usually or passing on a field goal to try and get a touchdown.

It’s Texas. The Rams are expected to not only lose, but by a lot. Why not go out swinging? Yes, the Rams will likely try and be smart early (as in: see if they can get the run game going) but there should be some aggressive play calls.

Give up singles and doubles, not home runs

Sorry for the baseball analogy in this football story, but it fits.

“When you play the University of Texas, you’re going to see a lot of speed,” Norvell said. “They’re going to have speed. We have to be smart about how we handle that. They have a lot of home run hitters. We can’t give up a lot of at bats.”

The meaning: Don’t turn the ball over (“can’t give up a lot of at bats”) and don’t let them make tons of big plays (“home run hitters”).

Texas QB Quinn Ewers is a Heisman candidate (we may see some Arch Manning in this game, too). He completed 69% of his passes for 3,479 yards, 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions last year.

Texas was ninth in FBS in total offense (478 yards per game) last season. The Longhorns will move the ball, but CSU needs to make them work for it.

It’s a big early test for cornerbacks Dom Jones, Elias Larry and Isaiah Essissima and safeties Henry Blackburn and Jack Howell. Can the defense at least slow Texas? Can an inexperienced front get any pressure? If Ewers has all day in the pocket, it will be a long day.

The view from Texas:Full scouting report, prediction

Find something to build from

Two years ago CSU went to top-five Michigan in Norvell’s first game in charge and were non-competitive. It was 23-0 at half and Michigan won 51-7, with CSU’s lone TD coming against backups deep into the fourth quarter.

The hope is this should look different. That was a young team in the midst of an ugly rebuild. This is now a veteran CSU team, with plenty of key players with a lot of games under their belts. That’s not to say CSU will or should win, but the Rams should show some flashes of a team that will be competitive in the Mountain West.

What does that look like? Well, the offense has big goals this season and with Tory Horton, Armani Winfield, Dylan Goffney and others at the disposal for Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, the Rams need to show some might through the air. Texas gave up a lot of yards in the air last season, although some of that was due to being up against most opponents.

The run game will face a big test against a stout front, but can a veteran offensive line make some holes? And can they keep Fowler-Nicolosi upright? These will all be hints at what to expect for the next 11 games.

And defensively, the Rams were big-play vulnerable last season. Can they provide more resistance? Again, Texas will likely score points but don’t let it be a track meet.

Colorado State vs Texas prediction

Well, I wrote a score in my preseason picks column and in Week 1 I can’t go and change that. I think CSU will be competitive early, show some good signs on offense, then fade a bit as Texas builds a gap in the middle of the game and make it look a bit worse late with backups. Rams will cover.

Score: Texas wins 42-17.

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.