Second, Donald Trump’s evisceration of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has hit some rebel groups hard. USAID never supplied the armed groups directly, but it did provide assistance such as food aid to populations under their care. The agency’s closure has therefore handed rebel groups a lot more work. Consider the resistance in Karenni State, along the Thai border: by the end of 2023, the rebels had conquered most of the state. But in 2025 they had to shift 60% of their military budget (about $10m) to meeting humanitarian needs, according to their governing council. It has since lost the state’s biggest settlements to a junta counter-offensive.
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