Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine is beyond a balancing act. It is a well-timed strategic move that translates India’s pitch for strategic autonomy on the ground and signals India’s ability to navigate both Russia and Ukraine’s close Western allies, such as the US. Mint explains.
What is the background to PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine?
Modi is the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine, 30 years after India first established diplomatic relations. The visit comes in the backdrop of his visit to Russia in July, which was seen as disappointing by Ukraine, and unnecessary by the US and its Western allies. However, India has not shied away from proclaiming its proximity with Russia while at the same pushing the need for dialogue and diplomacy for an eventual end to the war.
This visit should be read as an effort in that direction. Further, it is a move to re-wire its relationship with central Europe, which remains strategic for a rising India.
What is on the agenda?
India has stated that the focus of the visit is the entire gamut of India-Ukraine ties, including in areas of agriculture, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, health and education, defence, and people-to-people ties. However, what remains most closely watched is will India pitch itself as a possible mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Or will it refrain from making a specific pitch for peace settlement, and stop with underlining the significance of dialogue and diplomacy.
In that direction, India has also demonstrated willingness to offer support that may be required not only to find a peaceful solution to the conflict but also in the recovery process for Ukraine.
What role can India play in the possible termination of the war?
PM Modi has clearly underlined the futility of war, and pushed for dialogue and diplomacy for possible termination of war. India has not spelled out a peace plan. Nevertheless, it has demonstrated its willingness to play the role of peacemaker—a role if it takes will enhance its global status. However, India did not attend, nor endorse the joint statement of the Ukraine Peace Summit held in June in Switzerland.
Why is Ukraine and Europe significant for a rising India?
India has clearly underlined Europe as a foreign policy priority and central to its rising power status. Ukraine remains the ‘heartland’ in terms of India’s engagement within sub-regions within Europe, particularly central Europe. India’s position on Ukraine, is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it demonstrates its ability to navigate its autonomy, and balance its interest strategically. On the other, it also underlines its potential as a possible peacemaker as a rising power, given its close proximity to Russia, and its ability to be a possible counterbalance to China in Asia for the US.
Why would the US, China and Russia watch this visit closely?
Ukraine and its Western allies, particularly the US, think that India does have greater leverage on Russia than any other Western power. Against this backdrop, Modi’s visit has been welcomed by the US and is seen as a signal of a global community together in Ukraine.
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Russia would watch this closely. Despite immense pressure and criticism from the West, India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian arms, and has sought to capitalise on cheaper Russian oil as the US and European countries seek to limit the Russian energy sector’s access to the global marketplace. China is closely watching India’s visit and its potential role as a mediator in this conflict.
Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University.
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