CBS News poll: Many Democrats feel election chances improved after Biden exit and back Kamala Harris as nominee

The nation’s Democrats are reacting positively to President Biden stepping aside as the party’s nominee, with many believing that will improve their chances of beating Donald Trump in November, while also overwhelmingly saying Mr. Biden’s legacy will be excellent or good. 

Voters aren’t all political strategists, of course, but here’s how they size up the party’s chances from here:

They are much likelier to say their chances of beating Trump have gotten better than worse now, though about three in 10 say it depends on who the nominee is. 

And those saying their chances have improved are more likely to approve of Mr. Biden’s decision to exit the race.

Both men and women Democrats think the party’s chances have improved, on balance, but it’s Democratic men who are especially likely to say so. 

White Democrats are more likely than Black Democrats to approve of Biden stepping aside, and White Democrats are also more likely to say that the party’s chances have improved now.

What now for Democrats?

Most Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris now. With no formal challenger to her so far, the two options presented were to nominate Harris or a generic “someone else,” and about eight in 10  Democrats would go with Harris.

Similarly sized majorities express a preference for Harris, whether they are male or female, younger or older, and White, Black or Hispanic. 

Ideology makes a bit of difference: liberal Democrats are even more likely than moderate Democrats to say so.

On timing, a majority would have the party pick a candidate now; four in 10 would wait until the convention. 

Looking back at Biden

Two-thirds of Democrats feel Mr. Biden was treated fairly by party leaders while he made his decision. 

Democratic voters have an overwhelmingly positive view of what Mr. Biden’s legacy will be. Most believe people will look back on it as excellent or good. 

In an election where much of the difference has been about motivation, four in 10 Democrats say Mr. Biden’s stepping aside makes them more motivated to vote now. But that’s an initial feeling. Over the coming weeks, this is a sentiment that might prove critical to Democrats’ fortunes, as Trump led the race going into the weekend, and was already leading Harris in a hypothetical matchup in previous polling.

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This CBS News/YouGov survey is based on a national sample of 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats interviewed July 21-22, 2024. All respondents participated in earlier national surveys of registered voters fielded July 11-13 and July 16-18, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education based upon the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2020 Presidential vote and weighted to account for differential response rates. The margin of error for the total sample is ±3.4 points.

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