China’s rulers are surprised by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz

Cynicism about American politics abounds in China. The shake-up in the presidential race since June illuminates the limitations of China’s understanding of its superpower rival. When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, his appeal upset the widely held belief in China, reinforced by relentless official propaganda, that America was so profoundly racist that a black person could not become president. China’s latest report on human rights in America, published in May, says racism is getting worse, while gender discrimination is “rampant”. But America could elect its second black president, and its first female one.

For much of this year the Biden-Trump contest was a boon for Chinese propagandists, allowing them to portray American democracy as a fight between two men past their cognitive prime, whose attacks were redolent of playground bickering. By bowing out Mr Biden has unsettled that narrative and encouraged some Chinese to wonder about their own system, in which Mr Xi, 71, appears set on remaining leader for life. Last month a blogger on Netease, a Chinese internet platform, wrote “for some people, the greatest contribution they can make to the party, the country and the people is to hand over power, step down from the stage and go home to play with their grandchildren”. The next sentence—“That’s right, I’m talking about you, Biden”—did not calm China’s censors, who scrubbed the post.

In 2008 Mr Obama had not been to China and had little foreign-policy experience. Before she became vice-president Ms Harris was in a similar position: a biography of her published in 2021 mentions China just once. As vice-president she has acquired more exposure to diplomacy. She has been on 17 foreign trips, several of them to Asia, including one in 2022 where she briefly met Mr Xi on the sidelines of a summit in Thailand (pictured).

Some of the signals point to continuity with Mr Biden’s policy on China. Regarding trade there is little sign that Ms Harris would reverse the tariffs maintained by the Trump and Biden administrations. In her first big economic policy speech on August 16th, Ms Harris appeared to criticise Mr Trump’s plans to increase tariffs further, but endorsed the idea of economic policy to help the middle class, the justification used by the Biden administration for its protectionism. Regarding diplomacy, on her vice-presidential trips she condemned “intimidation and coercion in the South China Sea” and in 2022 she met William Lai Ching-te, who has since become Taiwan’s president. If there is a shift it will be subtle. Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group, a consultancy, says that as president she would be less inclined than Mr Biden to describe geopolitics as a contest between autocracy and democracy, and will stress the importance of upholding global rules and norms. “I think this will make it easier for the US to have honest conversations with not only the Chinese but with other countries around the world that are not going to hear from Kamala, ‘it’s our way or the highway,’” he says.

Complicating China’s assessment is the potential role of Mr Walz as Ms Harris’s consigliere on China. In 1989 and 1990 he taught English and American history at a secondary school in Foshan in the southern province of Guangdong. Later, while working as a teacher in America in the 1990s and 2000s, he organised numerous trips to China for students. He raved about the warm welcome he received there. “Harris’s every move…truly has a presidential air,” said one commenter on Weibo, a microblog platform, in response to Mr Walz’s appointment. Another commenter praised the move, saying it was like putting wings on a tiger.

The claim that Mr Walz is sympathetic to China has supporters in America, too. On August 16th Republicans in the House of Representatives launched an investigation into his “longstanding and cosy relationship with China”. In fact Mr Walz is no defender of China’s government. His year in Foshan coincided with a fierce clampdown on dissent following the bloody suppression on June 4th 1989 of the pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square. Five years later he married a fellow teacher on that same day in June. “He wanted to have a date he’ll always remember,” a newspaper in Nebraska, where he grew up, quoted his wife, Gwen Walz, as saying. After being elected to the House of Representatives in 2006, Mr Walz served on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China and supported bills aimed at punishing China for violating human rights. This record is already the subject of intense scrutiny in China. In the Paper, a news outlet in Shanghai, a scholar, Diao Daming, wrote, “it is difficult to determine whether these actions reflect Walz’s personal views and positions, but at the least it points to the Democratic Party’s recent ideas and biases”.

For China the Harris-Walz ticket is unexpected but the best guess is that it promises continuity on defence and trade and, possibly, more emphasis on human rights. Faced with this prospect some in China yearn for another Trump administration which might bring chaos but also, they hope, strain America’s alliances and undermine its global image. Yan Xiaodong of HuaYu, a think-tank in Beijing, recently noted that, with regard to Taiwan, Mr Trump had shown a “business mentality and approach”. Mr Yan recalled the words of Mao in 1970: “I don’t like the Democratic Party. I prefer the Republican Party.” According to Mr Yan this remark offers “profound insights”: the theory is it is easier for Republicans to negotiate with adversaries without appearing weak. By 1972 Richard Nixon visited the country, ending nearly a quarter-century of American efforts to isolate it.

If she wins in November Ms Harris will probably visit China for the first time in 2025. Is a diplomatic breakthrough possible then? It is worth keeping expectations low. Just ask Mr Obama about his first trip. In 2009 he tried to give the Chinese a taste of American political culture by meeting students in a town-hall-type setting in Shanghai. Even this small gesture “made Chinese officialdom nervous”, according to Jeffrey Bader, an adviser, resulting in “painful hand-to-hand combat” between officials on both sides. A future President Harris would find that Mr Xi, who took over three years later, is even less inclined to compromise—or tolerate such democratic deceits.

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