Trump maintains edge over Biden in battleground states on eve of GOP convention, CBS News poll finds

Donald Trump and the Republican Party will begin their convention week with a narrow but consistent advantage across the battleground states, which would translate into Trump being better positioned to win in the Electoral College right now.

Things essentially haven’t changed since the immediate aftermath of the debate, when sentiment shifted slightly toward Trump, so this remains a fairly stable contest in that regard.

These polls and estimates were completed before the shooting at the Trump rally Saturday in Pennsylvania.

These state-level estimates are derived from CBS News’ statistical model, based on this survey of voters across the seven battleground states. 

As has been the case for months, Trump benefits from the larger percentage of Republicans who say they’re  likely to vote than Democrats to say they’ll turn out this year.

Across the battlegrounds, Mr. Biden continues to trail overwhelmingly among voters who do not think he has the cognitive and mental health to serve.

Despite positive macroeconomic measures and news about the U.S. economy, just half of voters say their own financial situation is good, and Trump benefits from winning the votes of people who say their incomes have not kept up with inflation.

National picture: Biden and the Democrats

Meanwhile, in our separate national survey that takes a look at Democrats and a look ahead to what Republicans want at the convention:

This week, neither the continued discussion over whether Mr. Biden should step aside as the party’s nominee, nor his pushback against the idea, has moved the needle on that topic much either way.

Almost half of Democrats say he should — only slightly higher than it was right after the debate.

When Democratic voters are asked to turn into campaign strategists, there’s no consensus about how a hypothetical Kamala Harris candidacy might fare in terms of her electoral fortunes.

But views on it are strongly related to views about Mr. Biden: those who think Harris would do better against Trump do think Mr. Biden ought to step down.

Trump and his VP

In another sign of how this is Donald Trump’s party: after cruising through the primaries, there is greater satisfaction among rank-and-file Republicans with having Trump as the nominee today than there was when he first won the nomination in 2016. Twice as many Republicans are excited about it today than they were then. 

With Trump expected to soon reveal his choice of a running mate, Republican voters would generally be satisfied — but not necessarily enthusiastic — about some reportedly being considered. Many voters aren’t sure either way, which is not surprising before a convention.

(Nikki Haley, who is reportedly not on that list, would draw the most dissatisfaction and would especially disappoint MAGA Republicans.) 

Their nominee’s prospects may be looking up, but Republicans voice continuing suspicion about the electoral process. 

Fully half the party already says they should challenge the results if Trump does not win this year.

As they have since the last election, a large majority of Republicans do not believe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, and most believe there was widespread fraud in the vote. 

Overall, attention to the campaign remains up after the debate, with about six in 10 registered voters saying they’re thinking “a lot” about the 2024 race these days.

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Data and results above are based on the following:

Battleground states survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,093 registered voters living in battleground states interviewed between July 5-12, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the total sample is ±3.4 points. Battlegrounds: AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.

State-level estimates of vote choice: The CBS statistical model applies multilevel regression with post-stratification to produce estimates of two-way support in each battleground state, incorporating survey responses, voter files, and U.S. Census data, as well as past vote in states.

National survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,004  registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 10-13 , 2024. The data includes an oversample in self-identified Republicans. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the total sample  is ±2.8 points.