AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey’s special congressional primary

WASHINGTON — Democrats running to replace the late U.S. Rep. Donald Payne Jr. will go before voters Tuesday in a crowded and contentious special congressional primary where three candidates survived legal challenges to have them removed from the ballot.

The winner will represent the party in a Sept. 18 special general election to serve out the remaining weeks of Payne’s term in northern New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 6 to 1. The outcome of that election will likely further narrow an already fragile Republican majority in the U.S. House.

One of the Democrats looking to fill the vacancy is LaMonica McIver, president of the Newark City Council. McIver has the backing of much of the state’s party establishment, including Gov. Phil Murphy, U.S. Senator and former Newark Mayor Cory Booker, state party chair Leroy Jones, who doubles as the chair of the Essex County Democratic Committee, and current Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. She also touts the endorsement of William D. Payne, a former state assemblyman and uncle of the late congressman.

In May, McIver’s campaign was almost derailed in its early stages when a rival candidate, former East Orange City Councilmember Brittany Claybrooks, filed a legal challenge to the validity of the paperwork McIver filed to run for office. Candidates for the special primary were required to collect 200 valid signatures from the district’s Democratic electorate. McIver’s paperwork indicated she had 1,081 signatures, all collected by one city council aide, McIver’s mother, in the span of three days, which Claybrooks’ challenge alleged was logistically impossible.

A state administrative law judge reviewed text messages submitted into evidence of another McIver aide allegedly claiming that he had also collected signatures on McIver’s behalf, contrary to what McIver’s paperwork had indicated. The McIver team submitted text messages of its own allegedly of the aide recanting his earlier statement, saying he “lied” and “misspoke.” The aide did not respond to a subpoena to testify in court, and the judge ultimately dismissed the case and ruled that McIver may remain on the ballot.

Claybrooks also faced a challenge to her nominating petitions, this one filed by the state Democratic Party officials. That challenge was also dismissed.

The Democratic field of 11 candidates also includes: Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, who testified against McIver in the court challenge; Jersey City educator John Flora; state economic redevelopment official Darryl Godfrey; small business owner and community activist Alberta Gordon; former Payne congressional staffer Shana Melius; educator and community organizer Sheila Montague; community activist Debra Salters; Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker; and election law professor Eugene Mazo, who also survived a legal challenge to his nomination papers filed by state Democratic Party officials.

In addition to McIver and Claybrooks, several other candidates have run previously for other offices. Mazo and Flora both ran against Payne in the 2020 Democratic primary. Montague placed fifth in an April election for Newark’s school board. She also challenged Baraka for Newark mayor in 2022, receiving 3,007 votes, or about 17% of all votes cast. For Salters, Tuesday’s special primary marks her third bid for elective office this year alone. She placed fourth in the Newark’s April school board election, ahead of Montague, and came in third for the Essex County Committee in June’s primary.

McIver led the field in fundraising and money in the bank at the end of June in what’s been a compressed and relatively low-dollar campaign. Godfrey and Armstead were second and third in campaign contributions.

The special primary and special general election will only decide who will fill Payne’s vacancy in the current Congress. The regularly scheduled general election in November will decide who will represent the district for the full term starting in January 2025. Since Payne was renominated posthumously in the June 4 primary for what would have been a 7th full term, Democratic Party officials will name a nominee to replace him on the ballot for the full-term seat.

Small business owner Carmen Bucco is running unopposed in the Republican special primary and is also the GOP nominee for the full-term seat in November.

Payne died of a heart attack on April 24. He succeeded his father, Donald Payne Sr., who was elected to 12 terms and died in office in 2012.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

The special primary for New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will report vote results and declare a winner for the Democratic special congressional primary. The Republican primary is uncontested.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary.

The 10th Congressional District includes parts of three counties just west of New York City: Essex (home to Newark), Hudson (home to Jersey City) and Union. Essex is the dominant player in 10th District elections, making up 57% of the districtwide population, compared to about 24% for Union and 19% for Hudson.

McIver could perform well in Newark, given her perch as the city council president, and in Essex County overall, considering her backing from the county political establishment. A candidate who stays competitive with McIver in these areas would be one to watch. Claybrooks is also from Essex.

McIver also received the backing of the Democratic Party in Union County, where Armstead serves as mayor.

Special elections tend to be relatively low-turnout events, especially without other higher-profile races on the ballot to attract voters. That, plus the crowded field of 11 candidates, means that determining the winner could come down to relatively few votes.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

While New Jersey does not have automatic recounts, candidates and voters may request and pay for them, with the cost refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of the June 4 primary, there were 501,324 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District. Of those, 271,633 were Democrats (54%), 181,025 were unaffiliated or independent (36%) and 42,588 were Republicans (8.5%).

Turnout in the district was about 7% of registered voters for the June Democratic primary and about 8% for the 2022 Democratic primary.

Pre-election day voting in the district was at about 44% of total ballots cast in the June 4 Democratic primary and at about 35% in the 2022 Democratic primary.

As of July 7, a total of 6,911 ballots had already been cast in the Democratic special primary, about 53% from Essex County.

In the June 4 primary election, the AP first reported results at 8:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 12:25 a.m. ET with about 91% of total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 64 days until the Sept. 18 special general election and 112 days until the November general election.