One-year mark of Oct. 7 attack prompts U.S. intelligence warning of violent extremism

A joint federal intelligence bulletin obtained by CBS News warns of potential violent extremism and hate crimes committed in response to the one-year mark of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by the militant group Hamas and the resulting conflict in Gaza.

The bulletin, authored by FBI, Department of Homeland Security and National Counterterrorism Center, was first disseminated by federal law enforcement to local law enforcement partners late Wednesday. 

The agencies found that the one-year mark of the attack “as well as any further significant escalations” in the Israel-Hamas war “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety,” the bulletin read.

The bulletin provided several recent examples of such threats, including the Sept. 6 arrest of a Pakistani national by Canadian authorities who was accused of planning a mass shooting at a Jewish center in New York City.

The bulletin also comes as tensions have continued to ramp up in the Middle East. Following an Israeli airstrike on Beirut last week which killed longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Iran on Tuesday responded with a missile salvo on Israel, launching nearly 200 ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted by Israel’s missile defense systems. Hamas and Hezbollah are both proxies of Iran. 

Israel also began limited ground operations in southern Lebanon this week.  

Following Iran’s missile attack, a senior DHS official told CBS News during a briefing Wednesday, “I don’t know that we’ve got a crystal clear assessment on that at this point. We are literally in the earliest days of trying to understand what exactly Iranian intentions might be. We do, though, assess that Iran has a global capacity and a global capability, that it can draw, that it can target U.S. interests around the world – that it certainly has the reach and capacity to do, to carry out, to engage with individuals here inside the United States in ways that present potential threat to the United States, here in the homeland.”

The official added that this is an area of “near daily engagement” between DHS, FBI and other law enforcement partners.

Iran has been involved in “a variety of other efforts in the aftermath of Oct. 7,” the official noted, including “putting out fabricated material to try to increase people’s anger about the post-Oct. 7 situation.” 

The bulletin cautioned that “the expansion of the conflict further into the region could serve as motivation for violence against Jewish, Israeli, or American targets in retaliation for civilian deaths, and we cannot preclude the possibility that threat actors in the United States will react with violence to the death” of Nasrallah.

Intelligence analysts revealed in the bulletin that the Oct. 7 attack and Israel-Hamas war “have been cited as sociopolitical grievances influencing some individuals mobilization to violence in the United States,” adding that “hate crimes surged shortly following the attacks and have decreased over the past several months to levels consistent with reporting prior to the conflict, a trend that mirrors hate crimes following previous international conflicts or events.”

In the immediate months after Oct. 7, reports of antisemitic incidents surged in the U.S. The Anti-Defamation League said it recorded 2,031 antisemitic incidents nationwide between Oct. 7 and Dec. 7 of 2023, a 337% increase compared with the same period in 2022.

“Over the past year, we have observed violent extremist activity and hate crimes in the United States linked to the conflict,” the bulletin read. “Jewish, Muslim, or Arab institutions, including synagogues, mosques, and community centers, and large public gatherings, such as memorials, vigils, or other demonstrations, present attractive targets for violent attacks or for hoax threats by a variety of threat actors, including homegrown violent extremists, domestic violent extremists, and hate crime perpetrators who may view the anniversary as an opportunity to conduct an attack or other high-profile, illegal activity.”

The bulletin also warns that foreign terrorist organizations have created media that compares the Oct. 7 and 9/11 attacks and encourages “lone attackers to use simple tactics like firearms, knives, Molotov cocktails, and vehicle ramming against Western targets in retaliation for deaths in Gaza. Individuals inspired by this online messaging could act alone to commit an attack with little to no warning.”