Swing states in focus as Kamala Harris widens lead over Donald Trump

The US Presidential race has undergone a drastic overhaul this month following the candidature of Kamala Harris. National polls show a growing surge in support for the Democrat — with many national polls now giving her an edge in the crucial swing states. The state-by-state results of the Electoral College will determine the election winner in early November with a handful of battleground states playing a decisive role.

An US Presidential candidate would require at least 270 electoral votes in order to take the White House. Every state is allocated votes corresponding to its congressional delegation (the number of members of the House of Representatives plus two senators). Georgia for example, has 16 electors to match its 14 Representatives and two senators.

Swing states play an important role in the ever-shifting electoral landscape and can essentially make or break an election. The ‘purple states’ in the 2024 contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for example, contribute nearly a 100 electoral votes.

What do the polls say at the end of August 2024?

Data collected from battleground states after the Democratic National Convention indicate the Vice President has now jumped ahead in the election race. According to The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll earlier this week, Harris hold an advantage over Donald Trump in each of the seven states most likely to decide the race.

A survey released on Tuesday by the FAU PolCom Lab and Mainstreet Research USA puts the Democrat 4 points ahead of former President Donald Trump among US voters. She held a similar lead in the Morning Consult poll released this week as well as saw an uptick in support as per Fox News surveys released on Wednesday. Harris also leads Trump 45% to 41% according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday.

What exactly are swing states?

The United States of America comprises of 50 states and the federal district of Washington DC. Some of these states tend to vote in a predictable or ‘safe’ manner to elect members of the same party (Democrat or Republican) every four years. Others pose a somewhat more unpredictable situation with results oscilating from red to blue. Politicians typically focus a disproportionate amount of time and campaign resources to woo people in these states. Swing states display small vote margins and tend to change over time.

Seven states were won by a margin less than 3% during the 2020 elections. Joe Biden had won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, NE-02, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile Trump emerged as the apparent choice for ME-02, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Electoral vote allocation in the current ‘swing’ states:
Arizona – 11
Georgia – 16
Pennsylvania – 19
Michigan – 15
North Carolina – 16
Nevada – 6
Wisconsin – 10

State-wise breakdown

Harris now leads by 2 percentage points among registered voters across the seven states. She is ahead by 1 point — a statistical tie — among likely voters, a group that campaigns and pollsters begin to shift their attention to as election day nears. The statistical margin of error is 1 percentage point across the seven states.

The change of fortunes is most visible in North Carolina — where Harris now has a 2-point lead. Trump had led by 10 points as recently as April and no Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since Barack Obama in 2008. The recent developments have forced Republicans to spend more than $16 million on television ads supporting Trump in the last five weeks.

(With inputs from agencies)