COVID-19 Surges Nationwide, With Regional Hotspots Leading The Spike

If you’re like most people in the U.S., you probably either know someone with COVID-19 right now, know someone who just got over an infection or have the virus yourself.

COVID cases are high as kids go back to school and folks return home from summer trips. It’s part of the COVID pattern, the virus tends to peak in late summer and again in the winter, but just because it’s part of a pattern doesn’t make a COVID infection any less severe, scary or annoying than years past.

While COVID cases are high throughout the country (read: don’t discount your stuffy nose as “just a cold”), cases are particularly high in certain states. Here’s what to know:

“We’re seeing COVID increase in many communities across the United States, particularly severe, at least according to our current data tracking, in the West and in the South,” said Dr. Sarah Whitley Coles, a founding member of Those Nerdy Girls, an online organization that’s dedicated to sharing accurate health and science information.

It’s worth knowing that COVID tracking data is less reliable now because of COVID funding cuts by the Trump administration, less testing and the discontinuation of certain tools researchers relied on.

While tracking is less accurate than it was a few years ago, COVID is surging in these regions based on the data that is available, Coles said.

“We are seeing cases increase here in Houston, and in Texas, and if we look at the data that is available from [the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], it certainly seems like the South Central U.S. — Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana — are seeing some of the higher test positivity rates in the in the country,” said Dr. S. Wesley Long, the medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist Hospital.

According to Dr. Scott Roberts, an infectious disease doctor at Yale Medicine in Connecticut, “the highest test positivity is in the Texas region … with the second highest kind of broadly being the West Coast. So, the Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada areas, but that does extend through Colorado and then the Dakotas.”

Folks in these areas should take particular caution when spending time indoors and certainly shouldn’t assume any COVID symptoms (runny nose, cough, fever, headache, fatigue, sore throat) are only a cold or allergies.

COVID test positivity rates, which measure the percentage of positive tests out of all tests given, in the United States is 11.2%, which is up from 9.9% last week and 2.7% in May, according to CDC data.

This number is an average of positivity rates across the country, meaning it’s lower in some places and higher in others. Test positivity is as high as 17.9% in places like Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico, and 7.5% in many New England states.

“The increased test positivity shows that there is increased COVID cases. It also means that we’re probably not testing enough. So, there’s likely more cases out there than we even suspect,” Coles said.

For comparison, though, test positivity in the U.S. was 30% during the peak of omicron in January 2022. So, while cases are overall going up, they are much lower than they were earlier on in the pandemic, Roberts said.

COVID rates are lower in the East and Southeast parts of the United States, but are, once again, largely trending upward, said Long.

Specifically, states east of the Mississippi have lower rates of COVID right now, added Roberts.

Two new COVID variants, Stratus and Nimbus, are behind the summer increase in cases, said Roberts, but they are not any more severe than previous COVID strains.

That being said, a COVID infection can still lead to complications such as long COVID, hospitalization and death, said Coles. And, COVID emergency room visits are also on the rise in many parts of the country.

“I would strongly encourage everybody to take actions to stay healthy from COVID and prevent the spread of COVID to others. I would encourage people to stay home when they feel sick, wash their hands, wear a mask in crowded public areas, get vaccinated if and when vaccines become available, and encourage their family and community members to do so as well,” Coles said.

The COVID vaccine conversation is an, unfortunately, complicated one right now as the new COVID shots are approved by the Food and Drug Administration (but not yet the CDC) but very restricted and are available to a smaller group of people than in previous years.

Shots for 2025-2026 are approved for people 65 and older and those under 65 with an underlying condition that puts them at high risk of severe COVID. Last year, everyone over 6 months was eligible for the shot.

The new vaccines are designed to target the COVID variants circulating now, Long said. “Certainly, if folks haven’t had a recent COVID shot, would like to have a COVID shot, it is the best defense against severe disease, hospitalization and death from COVID,” Long said.

The vaccines are effective, safe and the best way to protect yourself regardless of your age, he added.

“Certainly the populations they singled out are high risk, [but] I think it’s important to remind people that there are a lot of health conditions that may make people high risk,” Long said.

Common conditions such as having high blood pressure, diabetes and being a higher weight can all put you at higher risk of getting very sick, Long said.

“My hope is that vaccines will still remain fairly easy to obtain for those who want them. Certainly, people can talk to their doctors and see if they are high risk,” Long said.

With COVID seemingly everywhere right now, you shouldn’t discount sniffles or a stuffy nose as a cold or allergies. If you do feel sick or have symptoms, Coles said, you should take a COVID test.

“If that test is negative, it might be what’s called a false negative, or not positive yet,” Coles said.

In that case, you should test again in three or four days to ensure you don’t have COVID, she added. “Because if you have COVID, we want you to stay home, protect yourself and protect others as well,” Coles said.

If you do test positive, you can check with your doctor to see if you’re eligible for COVID antiviral medications that can help you stay out of the hospital and feel better faster.