Hermès faces slowest quarter in years as luxury woes spread

Hermès, traditionally resilient in the face of challenges weighing down its luxury peers, will probably show the impact of the industry slowdown in its third-quarter results.

The Birkin bag maker is expected to report its weakest quarterly revenue growth since the end of 2021 when it releases sales figures on Thursday. “Hermès’s undisputed lead in luxury shopper resilience faces its biggest test of recent quarters,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Deborah Aitken. 

Analysts expect 10.5% organic sales growth in the third quarter, which could be “optimistic,” Aitken added.

Hermès outperformed its peers in the second quarter – when LVMH missed revenue growth estimates and Burberry Group Plc warned on profit — but its ability to withstand industry-wide pressures thanks to a loyal customer base and exclusive price point is now being called into question.

Even Hermès is unlikely to be immune to deteriorating trends in Chinese demand, UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz wrote in a note. A slowdown in the appetite for luxury goods has deepened, as shown by LVMH’s third-quarter sales slump, and China’s consumer confidence is back to pandemic lows, Aitken noted. 

Hermès’s organic revenue growth in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan probably slowed to 2.3% in the quarter from 10.2% in the same period last year, according to analysts’ estimates. The silk and textiles division and the watches segment both likely saw a drop in sales, continuing a downward trend that emerged in the second quarter. 

That said, the company’s performance is still expected to have been relatively solid compared to most of its rivals. Organic sales growth across the group is still anticipated to reach double digits, helped by new designs, pricing and waiting lists.

“Hermès is expected to continue outperforming its industry peers due to the enduring demand for its iconic handbags and its exclusive client base, even as volume-driven categories suffer in the current consumption environment,” Alphavalue analyst Jie Zhang told Bloomberg News.