Kevin Costner’s Horizon Gets Disappointing Box Office Projection Compared to Its Horror Prequel Competition

Summary

• Kevin Costner has invested heavily in his new Western-inspired epic
  Horizon
  , but early projections are not promising for a big profit.
• Mixed critical responses and tough competition from
  A Quiet Place
  prequel could hinder
  Horizon
  ‘s success at the box office.
• Warner Bros. faces a challenging task in marketing
  Horizon
  ‘s domestic release amidst doubts about its ability to win over audiences.

Kevin Costner has put his heart, soul, and sizable chunk of money into bringing his new Western-inspired epic Horizon to theaters. The first projections for Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One have now arrived ahead of the first installment’s release at the end of June, and they don’t suggest that Costner is going to be riding off into the sunset on the back of a healthy profit.

Horizon has carried with it an air of gambling about it, both in terms of Costner moving away from his role in the Yellowstone franchise to deliver his magnum opus, and the millions of dollars that he has invested in the film. Paying off that gamble means the movies have to pull in a decent box office return, but the movie’s domestic opening weekend is currently only projecting a haul of around $12 million. Considering the production cost of around $100 million for Chapter One and Chapter Two combined without any marketing budget, the movie is going to have to pull some strong word-of-mouth to break even.

After debuting at the Cannes Film Festival last month, Horizon’s mixed response from critics at the event has already caused some ripples of doubt about the movie’s potential to win over audiences. However, the Western genre is one that is eternally popular, but that is countered by the continued fan discourse over Costner’s departure from the Yellowstone franchise. All in all, the next few weeks are going to be a frantic time for Warner Bros., who will be responsible for the marketing of the movie’s domestic release.

Costner’s Horizon Could Be Silenced by A Quiet Place: Day One

In a time when box office success is never guaranteed, Horizon is a bigger gamble for being released now than at any time prior to the pandemic. As well as having the task of drawing in audiences to a three-hour movie that only delivers a quarter of the promised story, the epic drama also has some tough competition from a popular horror franchise; A Quiet Place: Day One.

A prequel to the John Krasinski and Emily Blunt creature feature, the new entry in the Quiet Place franchise is released on the same day as Horizon. While the horror movie is reported to have a decent sized budget of around $40-$50 million, that is also how much it is tracking to take on its debut weekend. This would easily see it keep Costner’s movie from having a sniff of a number one spot at the box office, and further impact its ability to gain traction in the following weeks.

A Quiet Place: Day One explores the initial invasion of the alien monsters that hunt by sound. Directed by Michael Sarnoski and starring Lupita Nyong’o, the film is expected to continue the success of the franchise, which will also be getting another sequel in 2025. The original A Quiet Place was a surprise hit in 2018, grossing $340.9 million globally, and despite being released during the pandemic, A Quiet Place: Part Two also delivered a strong $297.4 million haul.

With both films potentially appealing to different audiences, there should be room for both movies to claim their chunk of box office change on June 28, but for now, it looks like Costner’s Horizon is set to be left in the dust by a pesky alien invasion.