Sachin Tendulkar, arguably the greatest batsman of all time, hit a rough patch in 2003–04. He was repeatedly getting out to deliveries outside the off stump, especially while playing the cover drive, his signature stroke.
After 13 innings without a century, he made a conscious and counter-intuitive decision in the Sydney Test of 2004: he would not play the cover drive at all. The result was an unbeaten 241 against a formidable Australian attack. His ability to suppress instinct for nearly ten hours reflected immense clarity, discipline, and mental fortitude.
The markets in 2026 may test investors in a similar way. When instinct pushes for quick reactions, it is behaviour discipline, restraint, and clarity of purpose that will decide outcomes.
Markets may remain active, but investor reactions will matter more.
The past year made it clear that we are now operating in a polarised global environment, one reshaping policies, fluctuating flows, currencies, and commodities.
For the first time, global reserves in gold have surpassed reserves in the US dollar, marking a structural shift in how nations perceive security and long-term value.
At a time when gold has outperformed broad equity returns over a 10-year horizon, it is worth considering whether we should continue to view it solely as a hedge.
Meanwhile, new public issues have largely emerged from mid and small-cap segments. Allocating disproportionately to large caps may therefore result in a portfolio that fails to accurately represent the true breadth and depth of the markets. Interest rates too remain higher than in the pre-covid period, suggesting that the traditional approach to long-term debt investing needs re-examination.
Yet corporate earnings, spending patterns and capex have not shown meaningful deviation, making it difficult to pinpoint the next clear trigger for equity markets. What may be easier to anticipate is that sovereign accumulation, particularly in gold will continue.
All of this reinforces a long-standing truth: 95% of wealth is created through asset allocation, and only 5% through market movements, while 95% of conversations tend to focus on the latter. The investor who shifts this narrative toward asset allocation and risk balance will be better positioned to create a superior portfolio.
Portfolios of the past may not be the portfolios of the future, and revisiting the underlying assumptions is essential. Interestingly, the inherent behavioural tendency of Indian households to hold gold has helped them create wealth over time an example of how behaviour compounds quietly but meaningfully.
To act or not to act
According to AMFI analysis, nearly four in ten Indian investors do not stay invested in equities for more than 24 months, often exiting before compounding has any real chance to work. Two years is too short a horizon for wealth creation in equities. Emotional responses driven by news flow, temporary price movements, or fear of loss often interrupt long-term potential.
In investing, perseverance and patience are not passive traits; they are active decisions. Just as Tendulkar chose not to play the cover drive, investors sometimes need to choose not to react to every movement. The discipline of staying the course can be more powerful than the sophistication of any strategy.
Systematic investing, thoughtful asset allocation, periodic rebalancing, and staying aligned with one’s financial goals remain critical. Market cycles can change every year, sometimes every quarter. But clarity of behaviour is what compounds.
In 2026, the most valuable asset may not be an asset class it may be investor behaviour.
As India deepens its financial participation, the next phase of maturity will be shaped not just by access and awareness but by behaviour how investors respond, absorb, and stay committed through changing market conditions.
And sometimes, as Tendulkar showed us in Sydney, the best shot you play is the one you don’t.
Swarup Anand Mohanty, vice chairman & CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India). Views are personal.
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