In 2026, the French fashion industry expects sales to remain flat

“My optimism got the better of me last year.” At the Fashion Reboot event held on November 27, Gildas Minvielle, director of the Institute’s economic observatory, noted a 1% decline in clothing and textile consumption in 2025. For 2026, the economist projects an optimistic scenario of +1%, a pessimistic scenario of -2%, and a median scenario of -0.5%.

So, while the outlook for the year ahead remains broadly stable, what can we take from the first nine months of 2025?

Womenswear is holding up, down 0.2%, while menswear, which had performed well in previous years, is down 1.9%. Childrenswear has contracted by 0.9%, lingerie is down 0.7%, and home textiles have fallen by 5.6%.

“By distribution channel, the momentum is with department stores and value retailers,” explains Gildas Minvielle, noting that the IFM retailer panel shows a 1.3% decline over the first nine months of the year. “In fact, this segment is up by 1.4%. Mass-market chains also grew by 0.4%. Independents, meanwhile, are down 2.4% compared with the same period in 2024.”

“But behind the 1.3% decline, 53% of retail brands tell us that footfall has fallen this year. There is a footfall problem. We also see an average decline in volumes of 1.6%. It’s an even sharper drop this year than last, when we were at -0.4%. Only 30% of respondents report an increase in volumes sold, while nearly a third report a decline of between 0% and 5%.”

Notably, only 18% of respondents report an increase in their conversion rate, versus 41% who report a decline, while 47% say the average basket value has fallen. Gildas Minvielle also notes that 18% of shoppers purchased products at higher price points in 2025.

“With regard to prices, the results of our survey indicate an average price increase of 1.5% for 2025,” explains the economist, presenting a chart showing that most respondents reported stable or falling prices. “The outlook indicated by distributors shows a price trend of +0.7% for 2026. Inflation is largely behind us, even if it hasn’t completely disappeared. But behind the average lie significant gaps across price points.”

In fact, aggressive pricing at the entry level, with products averaging around €9- roughly one-third of the price of a mid-range item in the same category- continues to muddy consumers’ sense of a garment’s value, notes Gildas Minvielle, who nevertheless points out that “62% of consumers did not buy ultra-fast fashion in 2025.”

“The challenge will be to win back consumers, many of whom are deeply distrustful of fashion in general, as the line between price and value blurs.”

The economist, who warns of a race to the bottom that could impoverish brands in a price war, urges labels to reinject value into their offer to win over consumers whose purchasing power has weakened.