India needs 86 million higher education enrolments by 2035 to meet NEP goals, says new report

India’s higher education system is approaching a make-or-break inflection point, and a new report has laid out the contours of an unprecedented challenge. With the New Education Policy (NEP) 2020 demanding an aggressive push towards a 50 percent Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER), the country is staring at a massive expansion requirement that will test both its institutional stamina and policy imagination.At the heart of this shift is a stark number: 86.11 million enrollments by 2035. This isn’t a symbolic target; it is a structural compulsion. And it arrives at a moment when universities are struggling with infrastructure, staffing shortages, and rapidly evolving learner expectations. The report warns that unless India reimagines its higher education ecosystem, the demographic dividend it so proudly cites may slip through its fingers, according to a PTI report.

According to a report by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and Grant Thornton Bharat titled “Continuous Improvement Journey of Higher Education Institutions: Approaches and Practices Shaping the Future of Learning,” India will need to boost higher education enrollments by nearly 85 percent over the coming decade to meet the NEP 2020 GER target. This translates to a required annual capacity growth of about 5.3 percent, an ambitious rate that very few sectors in the country have historically been able to sustain.This projection, steep as it is, highlights a deeper truth: The existing system, built around traditional campuses, is nowhere near adequate to absorb the impending swell of learners.

The report speaks plainly: “Traditional brick-and-mortar institutions will remain foundational, but they alone cannot meet this scale.”With physical campuses already stretched thin, a radical “differentiated approach” is now unavoidable. This includes digital universities, virtual learning ecosystems, and credit-based online programmes, models that can grow exponentially without requiring proportionate physical infrastructure.The conclusions stem from three focused roundtables involving over ten northern universities, reinforced by extensive secondary analysis—capturing the realities institutions face on the ground.

The labour market is shifting faster than academic regulations can catch up. With 40 percent of core job skills projected to change by 2030, the report notes that institutions are no longer treating employability as an outcome but as a design principle.This is reshaping curricula through micro-credentials, modular credits, work-integrated learning, AI-enabled assessments, and more robust industry collaboration, tools that ensure students are not just degree holders but job-ready.

From participatory governance to workflow automation, India’s higher education institutions are being forced into a cycle of continuous recalibration. Globalisation, digitisation, and rising student expectations have created an environment where incremental change is insufficient, and rapid adaptation is unavoidable.This is why the report describes the current moment as an “operational imperative.” Institutions are no longer experimenting for prestige, survival now hinges on agility.

In its closing assessment, the CII–Grant Thornton Bharat report notes that the sector’s focus is undergoing a decisive shift: “The dialogue now is shifting from access only to also include scale and quality.”This transition is not rhetorical; it reflects a structural urgency. India’s demographic advantage will hold only if the country can simultaneously expand capacity, enhance quality, and modernise delivery systems.The next decade, the report implies, will determine whether India’s youth become the engine of economic transformation or the epicentre of unmet potential. The clock is ticking, and the system’s ability to reinvent itself will define the nation’s future.(With inputs from PTI)