2024-11-06 10:20:03
Here at NPR, we rely on the Associated Press for our election results. The news agency doesn’t make projections, but rather declarations based on math.
AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Sometime soon, America will know who its next president will be. But between now and then, poll workers in each of the 50 states will be counting the ballots cast for former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Television networks may call states for each candidate well before the election results are final, but here at NPR, we rely on The Associated Press for our results. Joining us now to talk about why we use the AP and how that process is different is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hey, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey – great to be with you.
CHANG: Great to have you. OK, so just first explain. Remind listeners why NPR relies on the Associated Press to make calls on races.
MONTANARO: Yeah. The AP has a long history of providing election results and making calls. We don’t have a decision desk with statisticians here like the AP or other TV networks, so NPR won’t be making calls, but we will report and follow what the AP does. So when you hear calls that are made on the air, we’ll always attribute them to the AP. Our editors are and will be in direct communication with the AP. And live results will be updated online and will come directly from the AP. Check marks in our online results graphics, for example, will be automatically updated when AP makes a call, and we’ll reflect that in our stories and on the air while always attributing to the AP.
CHANG: And just to remind everyone, the AP’s calls are often slower than those made by the TV networks like NBC, CNN and Fox. Why is that?
MONTANARO: The AP doesn’t make projections. They make calls, they say – you know, declarations. AP wants to be fast, but they also want to be certain. So the AP doesn’t say someone has won a race until they’re nearly 100% certain that a trailing candidate can’t catch up to the leader based on the math. You know, they do this by looking at multiple data points – you know, the history of a state, advanced vote data like early voting, as well as their preelection surveys that have about 4,000 people per state – that’s way more than we usually see – and actual votes that are cast, especially those in key precincts.
CHANG: Right. OK, and when you say, Domenico, that they don’t make projections, that they make calls instead, can you just explain more about the difference between the two?
MONTANARO: Yeah. They’ll say based on the data, this person or that person has won and that the other candidate does not have a path left to win. So it’s a way of them making it conscious for themselves, for their whole team, that they want to be absolutely sure and not getting out over their skis, basing too much on, say, exit polls or models or their entrance polls, you know, the way others might do with the exit polls at the networks, as good as those do tend to be.
CHANG: And is there a situation where NPR might disagree with the AP’s call?
MONTANARO: Maybe, but would be very, very extreme and rare. You know, news leadership here does reserve the right to void a call, but that would only be considered in extreme circumstances, in consultation with NPR standards team and others. I would not expect that to happen. We’ve never done that before. Like I said, we don’t have a team of statisticians here, so it’s best to rely on the experts.
You know, there are likely to be close calls, of course. You know, in 2020, AP got way out ahead of others in calling Arizona for Joe Biden. They determined that even if everything had broken Trump’s way, he would still lose by some 10,000 votes. Well, everything did break his way, and he lost by some 10,000 votes. So they were ultimately proven correct, but not without some heavy beads of sweat on a lot…
CHANG: (Laughter).
MONTANARO: …Of people’s foreheads.
CHANG: OK, so the million-dollar question – when is the AP likely going to call the presidential race, you think?
MONTANARO: It’s going to depend on the margins. I mean, it’s possible that the race is called in the wee hours of the morning Wednesday, but only if the margins are wide enough. I mean, remember in 2020, the presidential election wasn’t called until Saturday…
CHANG: Right.
MONTANARO: …After Election Day because of how close places like Arizona and Georgia were. This time, it could be Pennsylvania that we’re all waiting for. We do expect a call for the Senate sometime after midnight Eastern time, potentially because Republicans are favored to win there. The House, don’t expect to call for it this week. You know, there are just too many close races. That’s all normal, happens every election, despite those who might prematurely declare victory.
CHANG: That is NPR’s Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You got it.
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