2024-11-03 22:00:02
Could red-state Iowa be shifting back to purple as a presidential swing state?
The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday night shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in the state, 47% to 44% ― a result that suggests Iowa is in play with Election Day fast approaching.
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Yet neither campaign has treated Iowa and its six Electoral College delegates as up for grabs.
Harris and Trump have made repeated visits to this cycle’s seven swing states ― Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ― where campaigns and political experts have thought for months that either candidate has a chance to win each state.
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Neither Harris nor Trump has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state, according to Des Moines Register chief politics reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel.
Why haven’t the campaigns targeted Iowa?
It was widely believed that Trump would coast to victory. He won the state over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 9 percentage points and defeated national winner Joe Biden in Iowa by 8 points in 2020.
His campaign also spent 2023 amassing a juggernaut structure in the state that delivered a 30-percentage point win in the Iowa Caucuses in January, the largest margin in the Republican presidential caucuses’ 48-year history.
How close are the contests in the battleground states compared with Iowa?
Among the seven battleground states, the largest spread in the Real Clear Politics rolling poll average is Trump’s lead of 2.7 percentage points in Arizona. The smallest spread is Harris’ lead of a mere one-tenth of 1 percent in Wisconsin.
The 3 percentage-point Harris lead in the new Iowa Poll is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31.
What’s putting Iowa in play now?
Women, especially those who are 65 and older and those who self-identify as independents, are spearheading the shift to Harris, the poll shows. Senior women support Harris over Trump 63% to 28%, and women who are political independents favor Harris by 57% to 29%.
Trump maintains large margins with groups that are core to his base: men, rural Iowans and those who describe themselves as evangelical.
Was Iowa a swing state before Trump’s repeat wins?
Yes. It cemented that reputation with the 2000 and 2004 races, which saw whisker-thin margins and reversals between the two parties.
Democratic Vice President Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 over the eventual national winner, Republican George W. Bush, by about 4,000 votes, or 0.3%. Then four years later in another squeaker, Bush got his payback, defeating his Democratic rival, U.S. Sen. John Kerry, by 10,000 votes, or 0.7%.
But the state flipped back again in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama took Iowa by storm. The freshman U.S. senator from neighboring Illinois had built a robust ground game on his way to winning the Iowa Caucuses over former U.S. Sen. John Edwards and Clinton, the early favorite. Obama coasted to a 10 percentage-point win over Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain.
Then Obama won Iowa again in 2012, defeating Republican Mitch Romney, by 6 percentage points. But that was followed by Trump’s win, flipping Iowa back into the Republicans’ column.
So is Iowa’s red-state status shading back to purple?
Even if Harris were to pull off a surprising win on Tuesday and Democrats did well down the ballot, it would be hard to argue that Iowa is anything but Republican red.
Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds won her second full term in 2022 by 19 percentage points. Republicans hold large majorities in the Iowa Senate and Iowa House.
A good night by Democrats Tuesday could shrink the margins but isn’t expected to change control. And Iowa heads into Election Day with an entirely Republican congressional delegation: both U.S. senators, neither of whom is up for reelection this year, and all four U.S. House members.
Analysts at Cook Political Report have rated the 1st and 3rd districts as “toss-ups” but expect Republicans to be reelected in the 2nd and 4th districts.
