2024-10-06 12:00:03
Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah State faces a monumental task as it starts Mountain West Conference play.
The Aggies are on a three-game losing streak heading into conference action.
Utah State will also take on the league’s top-ranked team to kick off MWC play, as the Aggies hit the road to face Boise State on Saturday.
Can the Aggies hang with the Broncos?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and it finished up about like you might expect.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — in my opinion, passers were completing an unrealistic amount of attempts in previous simulations, so I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 75. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented, though in this simulation that didn’t really impact much compared to previous simulations — Utah State is coming off a bye and has had some time to heal.
I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game. Utah State is going all white, wearing its road white jerseys with white helmet and pants, while Boise State is donning its orange throwbacks, with orange helmet matched with blue script helmet and matching blue pants.
How accurate was the simulation of Utah State’s last game?
The actual score: Temple 45, Utah State 29
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah State 29, Temple 10
My analysis: Going into the matchup, it looked like this simulation was totally plausible — Temple was winless and had one of the nation’s lowest-scoring offenses. The simulation accurately predicted the total number of points for Utah State, while also projecting more than 400 yards total offense for the Aggies (which also happened).
In the actual game, though, the Aggies fell apart in the second half after taking a 21-17 lead into the break. Utah State gave up 451 yards and 45 points to a Temple offense that otherwise has looked listless.
How did the simulation between Utah State and Boise State play out?
Final score: Boise State 24, Utah State 6
Key sequence: Late in the second quarter with Utah State trailing 17-0, the Aggies had a promising, quick drive end up without any points.
Spencer Petras completed three straight passes to get the Aggies downfield quickly after taking over possession with just over a minute until halftime — a 37-yard pass to Kyrese White got the ball to the Boise State 1.
The Broncos defense, though, came up with a huge goal line stand — Petras was stopped for no gain on a first-and-goal run, then Utah State leaned on lead back Rahsul Faison to try and score. Faison was stopped for no gain on two straight plays, however, before being dropped for a 5-yard loss on fourth and goal, and Boise State took a 17-0 lead into the break.
How the simulation transpired: In a simulation where there was stiffer defense that perhaps expected, the Broncos got off to a quick start.
After an early three and out, Boise State scored on three straight possessions to build a 17-0 lead.
The Broncos used a heavy dose of star running back Ashton Jeanty on their first scoring drive, which ended with a 1-yard Austin Bolt touchdown catch.
Then, after Utah State was held to a three and out on its second possession, Boise State benefitted from a 27-yard punt return that helped set up a 47-yard Jonah Dalmas field goal with 1:57 left in the first quarter.
Following another Utah State three and out — its third straight to start the game — Boise State again methodically moved the ball downfield, including a key third-down pickup that advanced the ball inside the Utah State 30.
That set up a 21-yard touchdown pass from Maddux Madsen to Matt Lauter with 7:45 until halftime.
The Aggies’ first promising drive of the game ended up with no points, as Petras took back-to-back sacks before Elliott Nimrod missed a 50-yard field goal attempt.
Then Utah State squandered its next drive, when Boise State had the goal line stand.
That was as close as the Aggies would come to threatening an upset, as both teams used ball control in the second half to make the final 30 minutes move quickly.
Jeanty delivered the final blow late in the third quarter, as Boise State leaned on its star again and he scored on a 26-yard touchdown run on the final play of the quarter to make it 24-0.
Utah State finally countered with a quick-strike 75-yard touchdown pass to White on the first play of the fourth quarter.
Outside of that, though, both teams exchanged time-consuming drives — and a pair of interceptions — before Boise State simply ran out the clock with one final drive that ended inside the USU 5.
Star players: Jeanty was a major factor, running for 173 yards and the third-quarter score to pace the Boise State offense.
Madsen, the American Fork High product, threw for 147 yards and two touchdowns, as well as an interception, while his favorite target was Latrell Caples, who had five catches for 88 yards.
For Utah State, Faison ended up with 70 rushing yards, though that came with just a 2.9 per-carry average.
White finished with six catches for 140 yards and the long touchdown, accounting for more than half of Petras’s 218 passing yards.
Key stats: The Broncos finished with only 329 yards of total offense, though they converted 7 of 14 third-down attempts to make the most of those yards.
Utah State put up 258 yards of total offense, though the Aggies struggled on third down, converting just 4 of 13.
Boise State also had five sacks, compared to two for Utah State.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: If there’s one thing that seems a bit unrealistic about this simulation, it’s that I expected Boise State to score more: in real life, the Broncos are averaging 47.8 points per game, and 24 points seems a bit low, especially against a Utah State team that is giving up 36.3 points per game.
Other than that, though, this went about as expected. Jeanty controlled the flow of the game, and Boise State was never really in danger of losing to a Utah State team that is desperate for a win.
