2024-09-13 09:40:02
This was set up to be the “year of the rookie” for wide receivers in fantasy football. The 2024 NFL Draft was historically offense-heavy, and fantasy managers took notice.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was typically a second-round pick (even sneaking into the late first round in some leagues). Malik Nabers was drafted as a top-24 wideout. Excitement was at an all-time high.
But Week 1 took a lot of wind out of those sails. Managers are worried about their high draft picks, and suddenly the conversation is wide open around who the best rookie wide receiver is for the 2024 fantasy football season.
It wasn’t all bad, either. Xavier Worthy was wildly impressive on opening night for the Kansas City Chiefs and Brian Thomas Jr. looked great for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But I’m here to tell you that the top scorer will not be Harrison or Nabers. It won’t even be Worthy or Thomas. It will be the Buffalo Bills’ Keon Coleman.
I’m on the record saying that all the memes around Marvin Harrison Jr.’s struggles make him a great buy-low candidate, but that doesn’t mean I think he’s the best bet to lead rookies. Kyler Murray has typically struggled to produce a true fantasy star wideout. DeAndre Hopkins in 2020 is the only Cardinal to eclipse even 1,000 yards in a single season. Harrison should bounce back, but his ceiling still seems to have a bit of a cap on it.
Malik Nabers looked great in his debut, but the New York Giants did not. Daniel Jones was as terrible as advertised, and this offense has issues that Jones, or backup Drew Lock, won’t fix. Nabers’ 7 targets were closer to Devin Singletary (5) than to team leader Wan’Dale Robinson (12).
Nabers’ volume should increase, but efficiency and playcalling will remain a massive concern,
Xavier Worthy’s obvious drawback is Hollywood Brown will be returning eventually, and he could fall as far as fourth in the pecking order for looks in the Chiefs’ receiving game (behind Brown, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce). As it was, he had only 3 targets and 1 rush attempt in that impressive debut.
Thomas similarly didn’t see great volume and just has too much competition in his offense. His 4 targets had him tied with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram and were only 1 more than Travis Etienne and Gabe Davis each saw.
So if I’m worried about players who only saw 4 or 5 looks in Week 1, why am I so in on Keon Coleman’s 4 receptions for 51 yards on 5 targets in his Buffalo Bills debut?
Those 5 targets gave him a solo team lead — nobody else in the Bills offense saw more than 3. He accounted for 22% of the team’s total targets and 27.7% of the team’s air yards. Both of those shares are higher than any of the four players listed above.
Coleman also played 45 snaps — 9 more than the next-best Bills WR (Mack Hollins at 36) and 12 more than third-place Khalil Shakir. Neither Curtis Samuel nor Marquez Valdes-Scantling played more than 20.
Coleman is the clear WR1 in this offense. And that’s a golden opportunity for fantasy production.
Yes, Buffalo went very run-heavy to open the season. But they also started the year against an Arizona Cardinals defense that PFF ranked 32nd in run defense with an abysmal 38.2 grade in 2023 (while no other team finished worse than 50.0). The matchup was the perfect opportunity to grind out a run-heavy win. Josh Allen attempted only 23 passes, while his average last year was 34.1.
Allen is still No. 7 in FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds to lead the NFL in passing yards in the regular season, and at +1100 there’s not a big difference in his implied probability (8.3%) and even third-placed Patrick Mahomes (11.1% at +800). He’s also No. 2 in the odds to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and No. 2 in the MVP odds.
So here we have an elite quarterback projected to be one of the most statistically productive in the league. Obviously his clear-cut WR1 is going to be a terrific fantasy asset, and you should immediately go trade for him if you can, right?
Right. Go buy Keon Coleman now before it’s too late.
