Colin Allred’s Chances of Beating Ted Cruz in Texas Senate Race

Colin Allred, the Democratic congressman challenging Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, trailed by only 2 percentage points in a poll released hours before his planned speech at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday.

Democrats are hoping Allred can unseat Cruz, who narrowly won reelection in 2018. Texas has been viewed as a traditionally Republican-leaning state but has grown more competitive in recent election cycles because of growth in areas like Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and their suburbs, which have trended toward Democrats.

Allred is viewed as a rising star and is scheduled to speak at the DNC in Chicago, Illinois, ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris‘ nomination-acceptance speech on Thursday night.

A new poll of Texas voters showed Allred outperforming Harris in the state. The poll was conducted by YouGov, the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs. It surveyed 1,365 likely voters from August 5 to 16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.

The poll showed Cruz with a 2-point lead over Allred (46.6 percent to 44.5 percent), with Libertarian Party candidate Ted Brown winning about 2.5 percentage points. An additional 6.4 percent of respondents said they are not sure who they plan to vote for in November.

At the presidential level, former President Donald Trump has a larger lead over Harris, according to the survey. The poll found that 49.5 percent of respondents plan to back Trump, while 44.6 percent are voting for Harris, giving the Republican nominee a 5-point advantage. In 2020, Trump beat President Joe Biden by 5.6 points in Texas.

Allred, a former NFL star, was first elected to Congress in 2018, flipping a suburban seat previously held by Republicans. He has sought to portray himself as more moderate candidate than Cruz but has faced questions about his stance on immigration. Meanwhile, Cruz has faced backlash over his stance on other issues, such as reproductive rights.

Cruz said in February that he is Democrats’ “number one target” during an interview with Fox News.

Other polls conducted throughout the summer have found Cruz with a larger lead.

An ActiVote poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from June 25 to July 18, found Cruz leading Allred by 8 percentage points (54 percent to 46 percent). A Remington Research Group poll, conducted among 589 likely voters from June 29 to July 1, found Cruz leading by 10 points (53 percent to 43 percent).

Newsweek reached out to the Allred and Cruz campaigns for comment via email.

Democrats are defending Senate seats in several swing states—such as Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania—and Republican-leaning states—including Montana and Ohio. The only potential pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats appear to be Florida and Texas, but Republicans are viewed as having an advantage in both states.

Both are viewed by the Cook Political Report as “Likely Republican,” meaning they are “not considered competitive at this point” but have “the potential to become engaged.”

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