On May 4, something seismic happened in Tamil Nadu — a state where cinema often intersects with politics. A two-year-old party, founded by a film actor, built on fan clubs, and dismissed by veteran political observers as a romantic long shot, did not just win; it reshaped the state’s political map. But Vijay’s TVK did not win by enough that day.
Until it finally claimed to have the required number with support from other parties four days later, on Friday.
Yet, there was no formal invitation from the Governor to form the government. Whether the math works yet or not, political twists continued into Friday night. The CPI(M) backing Vijay claimed the oath ceremony would be held on Saturday, 11 am; but formal confirmation was awaited.
The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay, emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, ending a decades-long stranglehold of the Dravidian duopoly — the DMK and the AIADMK — on Tamil Nadu’s politics.
The incumbent chief minister, MK Stalin of the DMK, lost his own seat in Kolathur, which he’d won thrice before.
And yet, by the morning of May 5, Vijay’s triumph already had an asterisk. It had 108 seats, not 118. And 118, the simple majority mark in a 234-member House, is the number that matters when you want to govern. Technically, even 117 would do for now (we’ll come to that).
Not just math, a political problem too
Vijay’s TVK had contested alone across all constituencies. Vijay had repeatedly declared, in the months before the election, that he would have no truck with either the AIADMK-BJP or the DMK-Congress.
“Not publicly, not even behind closed doors,” Vijay, Christian by faith, said of the BJP in particular, calling the Hindutva-driven party an “ideological enemy”. The DMK, too, represented the old powers he said TVK was born to replace, thus a “political enemy”.
With no pre-poll partners, the TVK had no reservoir of support to draw from when it fell short by 10. Making matters trickier, Vijay won from two constituencies. The law requires him to vacate one and he can vote only as one member in a trust vote, bringing TVK’s effective tally down to 107 usable legislators and the House strength to 233 members.
First move: Congress breaks ranks
As Vijay scouted for support, the first party to blink was the Indian National Congress, which won five seats as part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA).
In a late-night meeting on May 5, the Congress decided to back the TVK but with a simple condition, that Vijay won’t align with “communal forces”, meaning the BJP. The TVK had cited former Tamil Nadu CM K Kamaraj, a Congress stalwart, as one of its ideological icons; that may have made the conversation easier.
The DMK was furious at the Congress; at a legislature party meeting, it passed a resolution calling it a “major betrayal”. Senior DMK leader TKS Elangovan said, “The INDIA bloc is gone. We will reframe the alliance.” The INDIA bloc led by the Congress had managed to bring the Narendra Modi regime’s numbers down in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Anyhow, in the here and now, the Congress’s five MLAs pushed Vijay’s effective numbers to 113 seats the assembly. Still short of 118.
Left and VCK
The remaining arithmetic depended on the Left parties — CPI and CPI(M), two seats each — and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), also with two seats. These parties were also formally part of the DMK-led SPA.
The CPI executive committee weighed “pros and cons”. The CPI(M) held a state committee meeting. The VCK called an online high-level committee meeting, and announced the party’s decision would come on Saturday. By Friday night, there was talk the VCK wants a deputy CM’s post.
VCK’s Thol Thirumavalavan also commented that if the TVK, which opposed dynasty politics, allies with the Congress, that would be contradictory to its stance. VCK’s current ally DMK too, however, is dynastic on that count; MK Stalin is the son of ex-CM M Karunanidhi, who was a noted film scriptwriter.
The script just kept getting trickier.
The existing Tamil Nadu assembly’s tenure is to expire on May 10. If no government is formed by then, the Governor could impose President’s Rule — effectively central, BJP-administered rule in a state where the BJP has won exactly one seat.
After 3 meets
Governor Rajendra Arlekar added the major layer of tension. Even after the Congress extended support, he did not invite Vijay to form the government, saying he remained short of majority.
Constitutional convention, critics noted, requires a Governor to invite the single largest party to attempt government formation and then establish a majority on the floor of the House — not as a precondition to receiving such an invitation. CPI general secretary D Raja called the delay a breach of established parliamentary practice. Congress MP Jebi Mather alleged a “hidden agenda”.
Vijay met the Governor three times in three days. On Friday afternoon, May 8, the magic number appeared to have been reached.
CPI state secretary M Veerapandiyan and CPI(M)’s P Shanmugam held a joint press conference and announced their support for TVK. The VCK’s Thirumavalavan, they said, had told them he would go along with their decision. The IUML, with two MLAs, was also reportedly ready to support Vijay.
Final tally
Now the math stood thus as per TVK backers:
- TVK 107 (Vijay, who won two seats, counted as one vote);
- Congress contributed five;
- Plus, two each from CPI and CPI(M); for a total of 116.
VCK’s two could take it to 118. That decision is to come Saturday. The IUML also has two seats, and at one point was reported to be backing Vijay; only to later say it was a rumour.
The majority mark in the assembly would now be 117 with 233 members in play (Vijay to vote once despite winning two seats, as per the law).
Clear communication from the Lok Bhavan was awaited, as of 10:30 pm, Friday.
The bigger picture
There is a certain political irony woven through this entire episode.
Vijay built the TVK explicitly as an alternative to the Dravidian old guard and as an ideological adversary of the BJP. He won without a single alliance partner. And yet to govern, he needed the support of every significant former ally of the very party he defeated.
The DMK, meanwhile, finds itself not just in the opposition, but also abandoned by some allies it cultivated over years. It’s watching them try and help a rival take power. At one point there was talk of the DMK backing arch rival AIADMK to keep Vijay out. That’s no longer in play, it appears.
For now, the math may eventually work for the TVK. The government will be formed at some point. Thalapathy — ‘the commander’ — may just have to wait a tad bit more to take the chair.
Unless there’s another twist in this tale.
Whether Tamil Nadu’s political realignment is permanent, or not, is the question that will define the state’s politics long after Vijay’s oath ceremony, whenever that takes place.
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