As voting for the second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concludes on Wednesday, attention is turning to exit polls, which are expected to start coming in after 6:30 pm today.
With a high-stakes contest underway, the big question remains — how reliable were these early projections in 2021?
The last phase of polling covered 142 seats across seven districts. While there were reports of violence and vandalism in parts of the state soon after voting began in the first phase on April 23, the final phase was described as largely peaceful.
What happened in 2021 exit polls
In 2021, predictions were sharply divided, with agencies offering contrasting outcomes.
CVoter projected the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) to retain power comfortably with 158 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was estimated at 115. On the other hand, the Republic-CNX poll flipped the script, giving the BJP an edge with 143 seats and placing the TMC at 133.
Axis My India suggested an even tighter race, projecting the TMC between 130 and 156 seats and the BJP between 134 and 160 – effectively indicating that either party could cross the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly.
Actual results told a different story
When the results were declared, the outcome differed significantly from most projections. The TMC secured a sweeping victory, winning 215 seats, while the BJP was restricted to 77 constituencies.
The election, held over eight phases, had seen the BJP mount a strong challenge against Banerjee, while the CPI(M)-Congress-ISF alliance added a third angle in several constituencies but failed to make a substantial impact.
Assembly election 2026
The ongoing election has once again seen an intense face-off, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking to expand the BJP’s footprint in the state. For the BJP, a win here would mark a significant breakthrough in eastern India.
For Banerjee, another victory would mean a fourth consecutive term, further cementing her position as one of the key regional leaders capable of taking on the BJP at the national level.
The campaign has been marked by sharp exchanges, with issues like voter roll revisions — particularly the Special Intensive Revision — taking centre stage, often overshadowing traditional concerns such as jobs and inflation.
Key candidates in this round include chief minister Mamata Banerjee and BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, both contesting from Bhabanipur constituency, making the seat one of the most closely watched.
The BJP is aiming to build on its 2021 performance, when it won 77 seats, while the unusually high voter turnout of 92.7% has further raised the stakes, with both camps watching closely to see how the electorate has voted.
The counting of votes and results of the 2026 Assembly Election will be declared on May 4.
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