The preparations for the 2027 election to the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly have begun. In 2022, the polling concluded on March 7. The results were announced on March 10 that year, and Yogi Adityanath took the oath as the chief minister for the second consecutive term on March 25.
SP leader Akhilesh Yadav’s Pichra, Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (PDA) formula of consolidating backward, Dalit, and Muslim voters worked in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. (X)
The contest primarily remains between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP), and their leaders Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav.
Apart from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress, Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Apna Dal (Sonelal) of Anupriya Patel, Nishad Party of Sanjay Nishad, and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party of Om Prakash Rajbhar hope to make their mark as caste remains a factor.
The BJP will continue to bank on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Adityanath. In a communally divided society, both remain the first choice of Hindu voters, with their common refrain being that there is no option but to vote for the BJP, despite their alleged acts of omissions or commissions, or else the Muslims will rule the country.
The BJP has the key advantage of the network of its ideological fountainhead, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). After the landslide victory in Bihar, the BJP-RSS would want to consolidate its position further by retaining Uttar Pradesh.
The BJP also has the wherewithal to fight polls, a committed cadre, and the poll management skills of leaders such as Union home minister Amit Shah. It operates on the idea that every vote is critical, which makes its alliances with small, one-person parties critical.
However, the division in the Hindu vote bank during the 2024 national polls remains a matter of concern for the BJP. Dalits remain sceptical about the alleged intent to change the Constitution.
Brahmins, a key BJP supporter base, are also furious over Adityanath’s supposed Rajput bias and their neglect in administration, the University Grants Commission equity regulations, and the sexual abuse case against Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati. But they have limited political options because Congress is making no effort to reach out to them, and they do not trust the BSP despite Mayawati’s 2007 overtures. The growing disenchantment among the youth will also concern the BJP.
In 2017, the BJP won 312 assembly seats with about 40% of the votes. This dipped to 255 seats in 2022, even though the vote percentage increased to 41.29%. The SP won 47 seats in 2017, polling 21.82%. It increased its seats to 111, with 32.06% votes in 2022.
SP leader Akhilesh Yadav remains a popular leader with an untarnished image, except for the Muzaffarnagar riots during his rule. He has focused on key development projects during his tenure as the chief minister from 2012 to 2017. Yadav’s Pichra, Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (PDA) formula of consolidating backward, Dalit, and Muslim voters worked in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when the SP won the highest number of seats in Uttar Pradesh. The formula is expected to be reflected in ticket distribution.
There is talk of a possible alliance between the BSP and AIMIM, and continuation of the Azad Samaj Party’s tie-up with the Owaisi-led party. But the SP remains the first choice of Muslims. Unlike BSP, the SP had never aligned with the BJP. The SP is also the only party confronting the BJP.
Yadav also has the advantage of committed political workers and well-oiled machinery. He has learnt lessons in poll management from his late father, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and has the support of his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav.
Meanwhile, the BJP is reminding voters about the “goonda raj” during the SP rule. The SP’s image makeover has not yielded the desired results. Thus, while Akhilesh Yadav has a good image, the party requires a makeover. Besides social alliances, the SP also needs a viable poll issue.
For Congress, despite an increase in Rahul Gandhi’s popularity, a disconnect continues between the party and the public. The BSP has been consistently declining and would need a miracle to recover. The party’s strength is that it remains the first choice of about 10% of Jatav voters. Its biggest challenge is its inertia and lack of political credibility.
